The war in Gaza is back in full force. And with a new, sad climax: on Sunday, the Health Ministry reported 50,000 officially registered deaths in the Palestinian enclave, "Spiegel" reports.
It is claimed that last Tuesday alone, when Israel broke the ceasefire with massive bombardment, more than 400 people died. "From now on, negotiations will only be conducted under fire," Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in the evening of the same day. He added: "This is just the beginning."
The question is: the beginning of what?
If we summarize what Israeli officials have said publicly and what former military and security experts have told "Spiegel", the scenario currently being discussed looks like this: "Hamas" must be subjected to massive military pressure to free the hostages. If it does not, the group must be liquidated and its infrastructure and administrative apparatus destroyed. The end result could be an Israeli military occupation of the Gaza Strip. This process could take many months, perhaps years. A time during which most of the estimated 2.3 million people in the war zone will have to continue living in tents and emergency shelters, dependent on international humanitarian aid, the magazine notes.
It is a scenario that is likely to cost the lives of many more Palestinian civilians. And most of the 24 Israeli hostages held by Hamas in Gaza who are likely still alive are unlikely to survive.
"Everything is prepared for the moment when the government orders a major attack on Hamas in Gaza," said Amir Avivi, who was a brigadier general and deputy commander of the Gaza division. He is still well-versed and knows many of the military decision-makers.
Pressure on hostage negotiations
Two army divisions have already returned to the Gaza Strip, and a third may soon follow. More than 200,000 Palestinians in the far north, south and east of the Gaza Strip have been ordered to leave. The Netzarim Corridor, which separates the north and south, is now largely under the control of the army.
According to Avivi, the leadership is currently still trying to free the hostages through negotiations and is only gradually increasing military pressure. "But if Hamas does not release more hostages, the time will come when the government will order a massive attack," he said. "It's only a matter of time," Der Spiegel notes.
It is not yet certain whether this will happen. The decision in the Israeli security cabinet has apparently not been made. Negotiations are still ongoing, and Egypt has just presented a proposal: five hostages in exchange for aid supplies and a limited ceasefire. Israel has not yet commented on this; it is questionable whether the government will agree to it.
The new course is linked to two people in particular: Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir and Defense Minister Israel Katz. Zamir has only been in office for a few weeks, Katz for five months. Both are close confidants of Prime Minister Netanyahu - unlike their predecessors, who repeatedly opposed the prime minister and part of the government. This is because they supported the hostage negotiations and opposed a permanent occupation of Gaza.
No war on two fronts
For this reason, the army is only temporarily deployed in separate areas to fight Hamas members and their allies there. According to Israeli figures, about 20,000 fighters have been killed. However, Hamas still commands the Gaza Strip and the group is said to have recruited 15,000 new fighters.
Zamir and Katz are now pursuing a completely different strategy.
Two events in recent months have helped them: first, Israel has decisively weakened the Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah, Iran has been deterred, and Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad has been overthrown. There is no longer a threat of a major war on several fronts. Second, and more importantly, Donald Trump is now in the White House, and he is supporting even tougher Israeli military action in the Gaza Strip - after initially imposing a ceasefire.
"Free all the hostages now, not later, and immediately return all the bodies of the people you have killed, or you are finished," he recently threatened Hamas. "The previous administration wanted us to end the war. Trump wants us to win the war," the "Financial Times" quoted an Israeli official as saying.
The last few days have shown what this new phase of the war means for the population. According to Palestinian figures, 183 children were also killed in the attack last Tuesday. The next day, a UN compound was attacked, one international employee (Bulgarian Marin Marinov - ed. note) was killed, and six others were seriously injured, recalls "Spiegel". The UN blames the incident on shelling by Israeli tanks, but Israel denies responsibility. A third of the UN's international staff is to be withdrawn. On Sunday evening, the largest hospital in southern Gaza was attacked and its surgical ward destroyed, killing a wounded Hamas official who was being treated there.
Humanitarian aid has not entered Gaza for more than three weeks
In addition, the Israeli government has been preventing all imports into the Gaza Strip for more than three weeks, which is why people there are starving. Electricity supplies have also been cut off.
It is doubtful whether this will put significant pressure on Hamas. And things could get even worse for the people of Gaza, notes "Spiegel".
Avivi outlines the possible plan as follows - and does not hide his support for it: The army will no longer fight Hamas selectively, but will occupy the areas completely. The refugees will be screened and, if they are not members of "Hamas", they will be transferred to so-called "humanitarian balloons". These are areas free of "Hamas", in which the army organizes and controls the delivery of humanitarian aid. Humanitarian organizations will continue to be responsible for supplies and logistics. On the other hand, the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) will no longer play a role. The concept was developed months ago, but it is now obvious that it will be implemented.
This will prevent "Hamas" from accumulating influence and money through the delivery of aid. At the same time, its administrative apparatus will be dismantled; local clans will take over this task under the auspices of Israel. This is probably one of the reasons why, since last week, Israeli attacks have been directed against civilian functionaries of the Islamists. The Palestinian Authority - the official government of the Palestinians in the West Bank - should not play a role.
Anyone who remains outside the "humanitarian balloons" will be considered a terrorist, will be deprived of food supplies and will be targeted. This is reminiscent of the so-called "generals' plan" to evacuate the population from northern Gaza, which was already implemented to some extent last year, the magazine notes.
The Israeli army is responsible for "voluntary" emigration
Palestinians in need will be allowed to emigrate "voluntarily" - for critics, this is just another way of formulating the "ethnic cleansing" of the area, Deutsche Welle points out.
After all, members of the government have already made it clear that there will be no right of return. This will be organized by a newly created body. This will likely require checkpoints, reception centers, additional staff.
The new institution in Israel will be subordinate to the Defense Ministry, a spokeswoman for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office confirmed. It should "prepare the voluntary departure of Gaza residents to third countries in a safe and controlled manner." The security cabinet approved the corresponding proposal by Defense Minister Israel Katz, Deutsche Welle reports.
People who wish to leave the isolated Palestinian coastal strip on the Mediterranean Sea should be allowed to leave "in accordance with Israeli and international law and in accordance with the vision of US President Donald Trump," the ministry said in a statement. It did not mention which third countries were involved.
The plan has been sharply criticized by Israel's neighboring country, Jordan. The Foreign Ministry in Amman has spoken of plans for forced expulsions.
This came after the US president announced in the presence of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu that the US would "take over" the Gaza Strip and turn it into an economically prosperous "Riviera of the Middle East". According to Trump's idea, the residents of the Palestinian enclave should be resettled in other Arab countries in the region.
At the same time, parts of the Gaza Strip could be occupied or even annexed by Israel in the long term. Late last week, Defense Minister Israel Katz made it clear that he had ordered the army to occupy areas in Gaza. "The more "Hamas" refuses to release the hostages, the more territory it will lose".
First of all, Israel wants to expand the "buffer zone" in the Gaza Strip. In recent months, the army has already demolished most of the Palestinian buildings within a radius of one kilometer from the border. Now this zone can be significantly expanded, especially in the northern part of the Gaza Strip. It is possible that the first unofficial Israeli settlements will be established there, Deutsche Welle notes.
"Hamas" has always had only one goal - the destruction of Israel
"Hamas"'s goal of destroying Israel, repeatedly expressed in documents and speeches, is not just rhetoric, but is based on concrete plans. In 2014, the Palestinian group established a committee to plan the new order after the destruction of Israel: the so-called "Authority of the Last Promise" (in Arabic "Hayat Waad al-Akhira"), recalls "Neue Zürcher Zeitung" .
The body is headed by Issam M. A. Adwan, a scholar and former Hamas refugee policy officer.
In parallel with his scientific career, he also plans the destruction of Israel - and lists this on his university website as part of his academic achievements. From this list we learn that the "Power of the Last Promise" organized a conference in 2017 that dealt with the end of Israel. In 2017, a center dedicated to the dissemination of his research was also founded, which is based in Turkey, recalls "Neue Zürcher Zeitung".
In September 2021 The post-war body is presenting its plans for the period after Israel's destruction at a public conference sponsored by Hamas, chaired by Gaza's Energy Minister Kanaan Obeid, who will deliver the opening speech. The conference presents twenty recommendations for regulating the post-war order. They range from foreign and monetary policy to dealing with the Jewish population. The plans call for a Palestine Liberation Council to govern the new state during the transitional phase until the election of a new president and government, for the declaration of independence issued after Israel's destruction to emphasize Arab, Islamic and regional elements of Palestinian identity, and for the new Palestinian state to exercise sovereignty over the entire territory of Israel, the West Bank and Gaza, the Neue Zürcher Zeitung reported. So Hamas's attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, was not surprising, the newspaper noted.