The world economy could face its third global recession in nearly 20 years amid high tariffs on imported goods imposed by US President Donald Trump, according to an opinion piece published on the Axios website.
In the past two decades, the world has faced serious economic shocks twice - the 2008-2009 financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. However, Trump's imposition of tariffs on foreign goods in the US and potential retaliation from other countries could lead to a third-party "economic earthquake" for 20 years.
In 2025 The amount of goods imported into the United States is 3.3 trillion USD, which is more than 25,000 USD per household. If the average rate of new tariffs fluctuates around 29%, then the US costs of importing goods will reach 1 trillion USD, or 7,300 USD per household. This will lead to a halt in the import of many goods, which will lead to shortages and an increase in prices.
In this regard, the 54% tariff on goods from China can play a particularly negative role, since China exports many high-tech goods to the United States, including smartphones, as well as affordable products for families with middle and low incomes. In this regard, the rise in prices of Chinese goods in the United States can lead to a significant increase in the level of poverty.
In addition, the negative impact of tariffs is exacerbated by the high degree of interconnectedness between the United States and its trading partners. So if economic worries lead to a recession in countries that trade with Washington, it could hurt American exports. “These policies, if they continue, are likely to push the U.S. and global economies into recession this year,” Axios quoted a JPMorgan research note published shortly after the tariffs were imposed. At the same time, it’s too early to draw conclusions about how long the U.S. will stick to this course in its economic policy. “One of the lessons of the first few months of the Trump presidency is that you have to let news sit for a while before you take it seriously,” said Matthew Hogan, senior manager at investment firm Bitwise Asset Management. In particular, as the portal notes, stocks on global markets reacted to Trump's tariffs by falling, but "not as much as if investors believed these tariffs would remain in place for a long time."