Seven parties have a chance to be part of the 51st National Assembly. This is the conclusion of a study by “Alpha Research”. Three other formations are close to the line, bTV reports.
The study was conducted in the period 18 – September 24, 2024 by "Alpha Research", is published on the agency's website and is realized with its own funds.
The survey was conducted among 1000 adult citizens from all over the country. A stratified two-stage sample with a quota according to the main socio-demographic characteristics was used. The information was collected through a direct standardized interview with tablets at the homes of the respondents.
The sociological toolkit reflects the voluntarily shared assessments, attitudes and intentions to participate in the vote on October 27, but the share of bought, controlled or coerced votes remains outside its scope.
61.6% of respondents from "Alpha Research" adult citizens define the current situation as “extremely alarming, with destabilization and non-working institutions”. This opinion dominates in all social and electoral groups, with only a part of the residents of big cities and GERB sympathizers being slightly less critical.
Against this background, 53.8% of Bulgarians no longer expect a government to be formed even after the elections on October 27. "Alpha Research" registered a sharp reversal in attitudes compared to the previous two elections, when the majority of people still expected the election of a regular cabinet.
„The growing conviction that politicians will not cope with their main parliamentary task this time is a powerful factor in reducing voter turnout. Only the most ardent party supporters, who are also the most motivated to vote, believe that this time there will be a government”, adds the agency.
The majority is of the opinion that no cabinet will be formed, and this attitude is stronger the weaker the motivation to vote.
The campaign is just beginning, but given the persistence of these attitudes, it is very unlikely that the parties will attract votes from outside their core cores and thus sharply increase voter turnout.
Parties in parliament and future government
After the patterns of sharp opposition, “red lines“, “scrambling“ and rotation did not work, voters' expectations are evolving in the direction of “concessions and compromises by the parties in the parliament in order to form a coalition, despite the differences” (61.8%).
The share of people who are not inclined to such compromises is more than twice smaller (26.3%). Public attitudes are more polarized on whether a coalition should be formed between a wide range of parties (51.7%) or with one leading political force (43.5%)
Processes in DPS
The unexpected split in the DPS continues to trigger a cascade of political, judicial and institutional reactions, but it is the elections that will show where the center of electoral gravity lies and how stable it is.
In this process, it is not unimportant what the public evaluations are on key events in the until recently monolithic party.
In view of the legal battles surrounding the registration of pariahs in the CEC, "Alpha Research" asked the question: “In recent months, the groups around Delyan Peevski and Ahmed Dogan have been arguing about who represents the authentic DPS and has the right to bear the name. In your opinion, which of them has more reason to keep the brand/name?“.
53% believe that the wing around Ahmed Dogan has greater reasons to keep the name DPS, and 14.9% - that around Delyan Peevski. Among Bulgarian Muslims, this ratio is 43% to 27% in favor of Dogan's faction.
51.8% believe that neither of the two wings should take part in a future government.
16.2% give this right to the “Dogan“ faction, 10.6% - to the “Peevski“ faction.
Only 9% are willing to allow a peaceful coexistence between the two wings in a future administration.
Electoral Attitudes
30-31% of Bulgarians who have the right to vote are ready to participate in the early elections in October, which is a drop of about 3 percentage points compared to the June elections.
At the start of the campaign, GERB again positioned itself as the first political force (23.9%) with a slightly lower result than in the last parliamentary elections.
After the collapse of DPS, PP-DB (14.4%) and “Vazrazhdane“ enter the battle for second place. (14.2%).
One of the most interesting battles is undoubtedly between the wings in DPS. At the start of the campaign, taking into account all the difficulties in measuring this specific vote, Alpha Research registered the following results – 7.9% for Alliance for Rights and Freedoms (Ahmed Dogan), 6.1% for DPS – A new beginning (Delyan Peevski).
„The broad left unity around the BSP fails to achieve mobilization and counteract the negative trend in the left. With a result of 6.3%, BSP marks one of its lowest starting values”, the sociological agency indicates.
The result is also close for ITN (5.4%), but at the moment it can be expected that both formations will jump the electoral barrier.
Below the barrier of 4% to enter the parliament remain “Velichie“ with 3.2%, MECH with 2.8% and “Blue Bulgaria” with 2.6%.