A few days after the icy February, the first sunny week of March came. It clearly showed the terrifying situation in which the Bulgarian energy sector is.
The difference in net electricity consumption between the 8th (cold) and 10th (warm) weeks is as much as 256 GWh or an average of 1500 MW of system load every second. The difference in peak consumption at 19:00 reaches 2000-2300 MW. This clearly shows how great the impact of heating is and how problematic it is for the system to heat ourselves en masse for electricity. The difference in question in February was covered by lignite thermal power plants with the help of NEK's large hydroelectric power plants. We have no other energy source that can provide it.
This was commented on "Facebook" by Boyan Rashev, an environmental management expert.
Despite the extremely low consumption and high sunshine in the 10th week, 4700 MW of installed photovoltaics again provided less electricity than lignite thermal power plants - 146 GWh versus 182 GWh. A look at the second graph shows what happens practically every day:
The sun rises in the morning, quickly gains power and at 11:00 already provides about 3200-3300 MW, reaching over 75% of the total load of the system, which then drops to a minimum (about 4000 MW), because no one is heating anymore. At this time, however, some power plants simply cannot reduce their capacity below a certain level - the Kozloduy NPP is steadily producing over 2,000 MW, district heating plants are also adding about 300 MW, and lignite-fired power plants are reaching 30% of the capacity of the few operating units that are relied on after sunset. This means that there are necessarily about 3,000 MW in the system that cannot be limited. As a result, despite the large exports, the price drops sharply every day to close to 0 BGN/MWh for about 5 hours. On Sunday, we also saw the first negative prices of the year.
In principle, the production curve of solar power plants during the day is a perfect bell with a clearly pronounced peak in the 12-13 hour range. If you look closely at the second graph, you will notice the sharp drop in photovoltaic production in the 10th week after 11:00. This means that 4,700 MW of installed capacity reaches a peak of only 3,300 MW. This collapses prices and instead of increasing production above 4000 MW, photovoltaics are disconnected from the system when they can and should produce the most. A large part of their potential production is simply not realized, and the vast majority of their energy goes for export at close to zero prices.
While the uninformed public is enjoying how nice it would be to have so much "free" solar energy, photovoltaic investors and banks are wringing their hands. The lack of significant income from the stock exchange in the first sunny week of March does not bode well for their business results. Few can afford enough batteries with which they can transfer more than 30 minutes of production for sale at high prices in the evening. The graph shows how tiny this amount is after 6:00 PM. It cannot increase significantly with these battery technologies.
From now on, it will only get worse. The days will grow longer, the sun will shine even more, consumption will not grow. The same will happen in neighboring countries, that is, there will be no market for this electricity. Prices will be around zero or negative almost daily.
If the problem only affected solar power plants, there would be no drama. However, their suicide is dragging our entire electricity industry towards a slow death. Power plants that cannot stop and start abruptly - lignite thermal power plants (nuclear power plants sell only cheap base load) - cannot survive in such conditions. And it is precisely they that provide the system during the long periods when there is no sun - every evening and every winter. Sometimes large hydroelectric power plants help them, but the dams are not always full, so this cannot be relied on with certainty.
Gas thermal power plants in neighboring countries are much more flexible - they can increase and decrease their power many times in minutes. In addition, the prices of emission quotas do not weigh on them so much. Every night they will displace our lignite thermal power plants from the market. Bulgaria will export electricity at zero prices during the day and import it extremely expensively in the morning and evening. In theory we will be an exporter of electricity, in practice - we will have a severely negative net financial result from trade. On top of that, thousands of megawatts of solar power plants are waiting to be connected...
In this situation, we all lose.
Solar investors and banks lose. Mines and lignite thermal power plants lose. Investments in the electricity transmission and distribution network cannot be returned with a profit. Industry loses because it cannot rely on low prices for a few hours - excessive prices during the rest of the time ruin it. Households would lose a lot on the free market because prices are low when only the refrigerator is working and shockingly high when it is cold and dark.
Close to zero or negative prices are already a widespread phenomenon in markets with high penetration of temporary energy sources (modern renewable energy from the sun and wind). They are burying not only our energy sector. The situation in Australia, California, Germany, the UK is even worse. System costs - for balancing, ensuring capacity, transmission, etc. - are growing exponentially. In fact, the final price of electricity is already formed to a very small extent by the exchange and to a much greater extent - by covering system costs, fees and inevitable subsidies for mines and thermal power plants, without which we simply would not have electricity.
Who is to blame for getting to this point?
The state, of course. This is a direct result of the state (European) energy policy.
Who can solve the problem?
The state, of course. However, a government is needed in which the national interest prevails over the combined force of the European energy madness and the grant feeder.
Oh yes, but unlikely...