The first round of the extraordinary parliamentary elections in France went under the sign of "National sum" of Jordan Bardella. But the victory is not complete. And according to political scientist Virginie Marten, the president may emerge as the ultimate winner of the election. According to the results of the exit polls so far "National Union" emerges the winner with just over 33% of the votes cast. In second position, but at a good distance, is the New People's Front, the alliance of the left, which receives almost 28% for its part. Further back is the presidential party, which is not that far behind with around 20%. Suffice it to say that Jordan Bardella's party has the lead, but nothing is decided yet.
To decipher the results of the first round, the French site Actu.fr spoke to Virginie Martin, political scientist and research professor at Kedge Business School.
ACTU.FR: "National Assembly" is the big winner in this first round?
VIRGINIA MARTEN: "National Gathering" is clearly in flux. They performed better than in the European elections (31.47%), while turnout was very high (around 65%). Which further legitimizes this result. There is an undeniable push for a "National Gathering".
ACTU.FR: What do the results tell us about the left?
V. MARTEN: I'm a little surprised how they are interpreted. If we put all their percentages together with those of the European elections - we rarely compare, but with 15 days apart, that really says something - they should have exceeded 31%. There, they are rather below 30. There is no real dynamics. As if the question of "Unconquered France" slow everything down. We can assume that the same union without "Unconquered France" it would surely lead to something else better.
ACTU.FR: Macron's centrists are doing pretty well, aren't they?
V. MARTEN: Yes, there is a good dynamic among the centrists. They advance compared to the European elections by 6-8 points. For a presidential party that we thought was almost dead for the European elections, we see it holding up well and not even falling below 20%. The jump of 7 points is significant compared to the European Parliament elections. And this while we are talking about voting "against Macron". As Gabriel Atal said in his speech, they still see themselves as builders of a future majority. Even if it is relative.
ACTU.FR: Specifically, where are we after the first round?
V. MARTEN: We are in a bit of a complicated dance with the hierarchy of forces: "National Assembly" as a very great enemy, because we imagine him capable of having a majority. The "New Popular Front" is next, but since "Unconquered France" is there, I don't see them getting an absolute majority. Finally, in a mouse hole there is the possibility of having a prime minister from a central block who has managed to unite something credible around him. A grand coalition around the parties that Emmanuel Macron considers "republican". It is very complicated. It all depends on how thick the dividing line is. What will come out of there is perhaps the consolidation of three blocs without an absolute majority.
ACTU.FR: Can we already imagine who the future prime minister will be?
V. MARTEN: Without an absolute majority, it seems complicated. Jordan Bardella does not want to become prime minister. So maybe more of a neutral character to shoulder the responsibility of bringing people together? Why not Raphael Glucksmann of the Place Publique or Aurelien Pradier, who recently threw away his membership card in the "Republicans"? In any case, candidates who are "Republicans" in the primary sense of the term and which are not too closely related to their original party.
ACTU.FR: Why Jordan Bardella could refuse the post of Prime Minister?
V. MARTEN: It would be uncontrollable. He would risk a vote of no confidence and could be ousted in a month. If "National Assembly" does not have an absolute majority, Bardella will not take the post of Prime Minister. He said it himself.
ACTU.FR: Are we heading for a new centrist government? If there is no absolute majority, will Emmanuel Macron win? And can we consider that the dissolution of the National Assembly succeeded?
V. MARTEN: It is above all a gamble. If we allow ourselves a little political fiction and imagine that there is no party with an absolute majority the day after July 7, then Macron will propose that one of the representatives of the group with the most MPs be appointed prime minister. Bardella will probably refuse. From there, he will certainly call the chairmen of the parties he considers Republican and offer them a grand coalition. A bit like what is done in Denmark or Germany.
ACTU.FR: Which would explain the government's strategy of talking about "the extremes" when "Unconquered France" it is not far left, as the Council of State indicates.
V. MARTEN: When we are faced with two blocs considered to be final, people say "I want neither" and in this political chaos, Macron and this central block appear as "reasonable" party. And less talk about balance. "I erase the left-right divide, there are only extremes that are expressed, and so I always follow the reasonable means."
It is possible to re-imagine a government of the center and "neither". And Emmanuel Macron could get back on his feet.
ACTU.FR: But this is a political fiction
V. MARTEN: The first round has not said its hard word yet. Pay attention to this week's negotiations, which will be crucial. And then a "New People's Front" is possible. to remain strong, together with "Unconquered France".