Ukraine's stunning entry into the Russian border region of Kursk was a bold adventure for the country's military commanders, who committed their limited resources to a risky attack against a nuclear-armed enemy with no guarantees of success, writes BTA, citing AP.
After the first signs of progress, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky broke his silence and told his war-weary public about Kiev's daily successes. Ukrainian officials said Wednesday they controlled 1,000 square kilometers of enemy territory, including at least 74 villages, and had captured hundreds of Russian prisoners of war.
A week after its launch, however, the overall goal of the daring operation is still unclear - will Ukraine dig in and hold on to the territory it has captured, push deeper into Russian territory, or retreat?
It is clear that the incursion has changed the battlefield. The shock of Ukraine's lightning-fast advance has exposed gaps in the defenses of its powerful adversary. The offensive also risks exacerbating Ukraine’s own weaknesses by extending the front line and committing new troops at a time when military leaders are short of manpower.
To lead the operation in the Kursk region, Kiev has deployed battalions drawn from numerous brigades, some of which were pulled from the hottest parts of the front line, where Russia’s offensive is continuing in full force. For now, Moscow’s strategic superiority is largely intact.
"Extending the front line for us is also extending the front line for the enemy," said the commander of the 14th UAV Regiment, which uses the combat name Charlie, after participating in the initial phase of the offensive. "Only we prepared for this operation in detail. The Russians were not prepared for this operation at all," he added.
As the offensive enters its second week, Ukrainian forces are pushing in several directions from the Russian city of Sudzha.
The battlefield photos showing columns of destroyed Russian weapons are reminiscent of Ukraine's successful counterattacks in Kherson and Kharkiv in 2022. They are also a boon to national morale, which has been low since the failed summer counteroffensive in 2023 and months of recent territorial losses in the country's east.
But some observers are hesitant to judge whether Kursk Oblast is the right theater to launch an offensive. Estimates of the number of troops operating there range from 5,000 to 12,000.
Ukraine claims to have captured almost as much Russian territory in the Kursk region in a week as Russian forces have captured in Ukraine in the past seven months, the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, reported.
Russian authorities have confirmed the Ukrainian gains but described them as smaller than what is being reported. They have nevertheless evacuated about 132,000 people.
Hundreds of Russian prisoners of war were blindfolded and taken away in trucks in the early stages of the lightning offensive. They could be used in future prisoner exchanges to free thousands of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians held captive by Russia.
Ukrainian parliamentary human rights commissioner Dmytro Lubynets said the fighting in the Kursk region had prompted Russian ombudsman Tatyana Moskalkova to start talking about a prisoner exchange. This is the first time such a request has come from Moscow.
Politically, the incursion triggered a shift in Russia's stance and changed the terms of the conflict, in which Ukraine increasingly seemed doomed to accept unfavorable ceasefire terms. The strike was also a powerful example of Ukrainian resolve and a message to Western allies hesitant to allow donated weapons to be used to strike deeper into Russian territory.
The attack showed that fears of crossing Russian “red lines” that could lead to nuclear escalation “are a myth and the battle-hardened Ukrainian army remains a formidable force,” wrote Taras Kuzio, a professor of political science at the National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy.
Mykhailo Podoliak, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, suggested that the incursion could also strengthen Kiev’s position in future negotiations with Russia. Occupying a piece of Russian territory ahead of possible ceasefire talks could give Ukraine some leverage.
Although fighting continues, the territory currently under Ukrainian control is of little economic or strategic value in itself. "There is important gas infrastructure in the area, but its usefulness is likely to be limited except as a minor bargaining chip. The Ukrainians have also cut a railway line that runs from the city of Lgov to Belgorod," said Pasi Paroinen of the "Black Bird Group" (Black Bird Group), a Finland-based intelligence agency using publicly available sources that monitors the war.
The main military bases are far from the current area of operations, and Ukraine's progress is expected to slow as Russia sends more forces there.
Ukrainian officials have said they do not intend to occupy Kursk Oblast, but they could try to create a buffer zone to protect settlements in the neighboring Sumy Oblast from constant Russian artillery attacks and block supply lines to the northeast.
Forcing Russia to deploy reserves intended for other parts of the 1,000-kilometer front line is the minimum goal, Ukrainian commander Charlie said. But so far, Moscow’s focus on the Donetsk region has not changed.
Some Ukrainian troops have been withdrawn from those lines, where manpower shortages have been a key factor contributing to the territorial losses this year.
In the strategically important Pokrovsk region, the main target of Russia’s offensive, servicemen have seen little improvement since entering the Kursk region.
“Nothing has changed,” said a soldier known by the nom de guerre Kiyanin. “If anything, I see an intensification of Russian offensives,” he added.
But the operation in the Kursk region “has shown that they cannot defend their own territory,” Kiyanin said. “We are all inspired here.” "Many of our soldiers wanted to go to the Kursk region and push them straight to the Kremlin," he concluded.
Taking aim at Russia's Northern Group of Forces, which supplies the Kharkiv front, is a key objective, said Konstantin Mashovets, a Ukrainian military expert. Some Russian units are reported to have moved from the city of Vovchansk to Kharkiv, he added.
In the south of the country, a small number of Russian units have been transferred from the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions, said Dmitry Likhovy, a spokesman for the Tavria operational group. However, this has not affected the Russian attacks. "We are even seeing an increase in (Russian) activity," Likhovy said.
The operation in the Kursk region has also diverted attention from the eastern front, where tens of thousands of Ukrainians have been killed and wounded and where the Ukrainian army is struggling to plug the cracks in its defenses.
The greatest territorial losses in June and July were recorded in the area of the city of Pokrovsk, which is located near a logistics hub, with fighting also intensifying near the towns of Toretsk and Chasiv Yar.
Russian forces have resumed these attacks to take advantage of fatigue and a shortage of servicemen. In many cases, the losses were the result of poorly planned rotations of troops and mistakes that called into question the overall strategy of the Ukrainian army's general staff.
"There is no way Russia will stop its actions in the sections of the front line where there is tactical success", Mashovets said. "There they will press and press until the last man is left, no matter what". But the offensive in the Kursk region could force the Kremlin to withdraw reserves "from the sections of the front line that are of secondary importance," he concluded.