The situation in Bulgaria looks deceptively calm. This time it's time for thinking people to get scared, though. If they don't mobilize, they will be in for a very unpleasant surprise in the fall. Because good options for the future are almost absent.
The collapse of the DPS marks the end of the “Borisov” model of governance. This model was a combination of two elements: first, the political support for GERB and DPS on the part of about 30-35% of voters, which created a solid base for forming governments around these two parties; secondly, the hidden informal influence of Delyan Peevski (and Borisov himself) in the judiciary and independent regulators.
Why the model "Borisov" is already impossible
This model is coming to an end because his electoral support will clearly shrink. GERB has about 25%, but with low activity and demobilization of the other parties. With DPS, it is not clear how much percentage Peevski's faction will get and whether it will enter the parliament. Dogan's faction is also currently unknown both as a political weight and as a political orientation. One thing is clear, however: if Dogan wanted to govern with Borisov and Peevski, he would not have split the DPS, and he would not have failed to form a GERB minority government.
With Peevski's influence in the judiciary, things are already becoming unstoppable – even Dogan himself noticed the problem when he came down on him with terrible force. For days, Dogan remained only as an honorary chairman: without power plant, port, barns and yachts. A is about to be left without a party, although prosecutors and investigators have not yet chased him for crimes under the entire criminal code, like Tsvetan Vasilev and Vasil Bozhkov.
Preservation of the “Borisov” it becomes impossible because neither his hidden prosecutorial power is sufficiently hidden and secure, nor is his electoral power sufficient. The question then is what comes next?
There are generally three scenarios:
Catastrophic
The system collapsed in the October elections. DPS splits and each of the factions takes about 6-7% or one of them does not enter the National Assembly. BSP falls to the sanitary minimum of 4%. PP-DB collapses or gains below 14%. Parliament is full of new and old greats, headed by “Revival". This parliament will by definition be barren and deepen the political crisis. Authoritarian saviors will be sought and the step to Putinization or at least Erdoganization will be very small. Strategic priorities such as the Eurozone will be forgotten, and free democracy will be in mortal danger. At her expense, national populism of the Putin type will flourish. The country will be governed from the beginning by some caretaker governments with increasing influence of President Radev and “Vazrazhdane” on them. In some of the subsequent parliamentary elections, Bulgaria will emerge with an anti-European majority in the parliament...
Semi-catastrophic
GERB “wins” the elections with about 20-55% and strives together with DPS-Peevski to assemble a government. PP-DB are not an option after everything that has happened so far, and Borisov and Peevski are looking for partners among the “patriots”. “Revival" bet on the catastrophic scenario, but if it is not possible, they may be tempted to form a “nationally responsible” government, as long as some of their priorities are included in the program. The Foreign Agents Act will be the bare minimum. If Trump wins the US presidency, this option will become more likely, because the suspension of aid to Ukraine will also be on the agenda. If not with “Revival", such an option can be tried with ITN or other “patriotic” formations in a fragmented and polarized parliament. Such a management will seek “balances” between the EU, Russia and the USA supposedly with the idea of extracting maximum benefit. In the end, Bulgaria will isolate itself from the Western world, it is unlikely that it will be accepted into the Eurozone and Schengen, and the slide towards an unfree democracy will accelerate.
Semi-optimistic
DPS-Peevski does not enter the parliament or is poorly represented in it. PP-DB managed to seriously improve their representation and re-engage people with the causes of pro-European and pro-Atlantic development of the country. GERB finally effected some kind of separation with Peevski, from which they and especially their leader Borisov survived. Of course, a reincarnation or retirement of Borisov would be unfair to Peevski, because DP is neither the only nor the main architect of the "Borisov" management model. His sacrifice (somewhat in the style of Ivan Geshev's sacrifice) may open the way for a coalition of GERB, but it should not be confused with some miraculous rebirth of Borisov.
In this option, there are chances for the continuation of the upward development of the country, catching up with others in the EU, membership in the Eurozone, etc.
Problems in PP-DB
The paradox is that the problem with this third option is not only Borisov's catharsis, which will be rather theatrical anyway. The PP-DB also becomes a problem, as they fail to take advantage of the collapse of the other parties, but are dragged along by the general trend. The main reasons are as follows:
There are still talks about appearing with common lists, which creates uncertainty in the voter. Appearing separately will be, if not fatal, at least very negative for PP and DB. The two will probably merge and fight for entry into the National Assembly, instead of arguing about leadership in Bulgarian politics;
The current formula for distributing people on the lists is no longer adequate. The relative weight of PP does not currently justify a ratio of 3:1 or similar: however, a reasonable balance can be found, which will also lead to fairer and more sustainable cooperation;
The issue with the leadership of the formation is not completely clarified. Attempts were made the previous leaders – Petkov, Vassilev, Ivanov and Atanasov – to take a step back. How and when the individual parties in the coalition will interpret what this “step back” means. is interesting in itself. But at the coalition level, there needs to be new leadership. To some extent, this is happening through figures such as Academician Denkov and Bozhidar Bojanov, but the process must be formalized and not run quietly;
Most importantly, such intra-organizational torments take energy and time away from the important debates about the future of the country, in which PP-DB should participate much more vigorously. After all, at the moment they are the main guarantee for Bulgaria's European future, and with that comes a huge responsibility. Lists and leadership are important, but it is far more important that the PP-DB excels in this very responsibility.
So that there are no unpleasant surprises in the fall
The situation looks deceptively calm. The Bulgarian economy continues to develop well, many Bulgarians spent August on the beaches of the Black Sea, Greece and in exotic locations. So what, many would say, the country will suffer another political disaster.
This time it's time for thinking people to get scared, though. Good options are almost non-existent. Even the semi-good ones need a lot of work and a common thought of the solid majority of over 60% who want a European Bulgaria. They should not forget that there are opponents against them with a completely different idea for the development of the country – authoritarian and repressive. If they don't mobilize, if they let the system of parliamentary democracy collapse, those 60% may be in for a very unpleasant surprise in the fall.
This comment expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial team and of DV as a whole.