The US election - it is certain that nothing is certain

The world is watching with increasing interest in the US presidential election on November 5, in which the Republican nominee – former President Donald Trump, will face the Democratic nominee and incumbent vice president – Kamala Harris.

As Election Day nears, it's becoming increasingly clear that there's no telling which of the two will be the future holder of the Oval Office in the White House for the next four years. It is an unprecedented fact at this point in the campaign that all the polls give results with a difference of only 1% for one candidate or the other. The lack of a clear favorite in the race among sociologists is explained by their reluctance to take responsibility for possible wrong predictions.

Another significant point in the campaign is that this election shows a shift in sentiment among traditional groups of voters who are switching from one party to another. This fact makes it impossible for sociologists to accurately estimate the distribution of votes. Trump gains support among men of color but loses among college-educated voters.

Trump is growing among occasional voters and young, first-time male voters, while Kamala Harris is banking on the support of women and moderate voters. Despite his aggressive rhetoric against immigration, which to a large extent comes from Mexico and Central and South America, Trump has seen an increase in support among Latino groups.

The election will largely be decided by results in seven of the swing states, where there is no clear front-runner, unlike the other 43. Of the expected 150 million voters,

the winner will be determined by the votes of 250 thousand of them,

distributed among the seven swing states. The presidential race pits the longest versus shortest campaign in US history.

For Donald Trump, the campaign began on the first day after he left the White House on January 20, 2021. In the Kamala Harris camp, they set themselves the goal of achieving success in a campaign that began on July 21 of this year. - after Joe Biden's refusal to run for a second term. Kamala Harris had just three and a half months to convince voters that she was the right candidate. Who will become the 47th President of the United States is a showdown with unexpected twists.

Trump appeared to be a sure winner after he dominated a public debate with Joe Biden on June 27 and survived an assassination attempt at a rally in Pennsylvania on July 13. All predictions turned upside down just a week later, when Joe Biden and the Democratic Party declared themselves behind the candidacy of Vice President Harris.

Kamala Harris instantly won the support of both hard-line Democrats and moderate voters in both parties, making her the front-runner in August. As the campaign progressed, the differences between the two candidates melted away so that no clear winner could be named today. The choice will set a sure precedent. If Donald Trump wins, he will be the first US president to be convicted of a crime since a New York court ruled against him in May of this year. on 34 charges of financial fraud during the 2016 election. If Kamala Harris wins - she will be the first woman to become president in the history of the United States.