China poses a threat to Europe's security structure, and we are only now realizing it, says Abigail Vaselier. She heads the expert group on Chinese foreign policy at the China Studies Institute "Mercator" in Berlin. Whether or not Beijing is behind the sabotage of telecommunications cables on the bottom of the Baltic Sea, which remains to be proven, China has long crossed its own red lines, the expert said in a wide-ranging interview with German public broadcaster ARD.
China supports Russia's war
She recalls that over the past two years, Beijing has repeatedly assured that it will not supply Russia with lethal equipment. Since last week, however, we already have proof that China is supplying Russia with deadly drones produced in the Chinese province of Xinjiang.
Trade and financial flows from China to Russia are no less a threat to the security of Europe, the expert believes. In support of her thesis, she cites several figures: in 2023. bilateral trade reached a record $240 billion, an increase of 26 percent over the previous year. It shows how Chinese exports to Russia are replacing goods from Europe and its partners, restricted by sanctions against Moscow. In this sense, China is an economic lifeline for Russia, Vaselie also points out.
The second stage is the supply of dual-use goods - high-tech goods that can also be used for military purposes. Through these exports, China allows Russia to expand its defense production. And now we are reaching the next stage with the export of deadly weapons.
In addition, the two countries cooperate militarily as well as in the field of security - from the Baltic Sea, through cyberspace, to space. The number of joint military exercises has increased dramatically. All this represents a real threat to the security of the European continent, assures Abigail Vaselier.
What goals does China pursue with this policy?
China has no interest in Russia losing its war against Ukraine. The overall goal is to weaken the West and the transatlantic partnership, including NATO. Beijing wants to take the place of the great power of this century, and if Russia now undermines the West and the liberal values it stands for, it will also benefit China, says the expert from the "Mercator" institute.
"Through the war in Ukraine, China is gaining geostrategic space, especially in the global South, and can continue to position itself as an alternative to the West. This is very important for China. "Because of its global ambitions and the geopolitical situation we are in, China's support for Russia's war against Ukraine now poses a threat to the European security structure," Vasselieu says.
However, she does not believe that the Chinese leadership wants China to be seen as a threat to Europe's security. So Beijing is facing a real dilemma, because China needs Europe, the European market and European technologies, adds the expert. Therefore, he would prefer Europe to be on his side when positioning himself against the US. That is why the Chinese continue to come to Europe and try to change the European view of China - unsuccessfully, because Beijing's support for Moscow continues to worsen relations and the European perception of the country, Abigail Vaselier told ARD.
"The security of Europe is at stake"
China wants to dominate world trade. It is good for Beijing that Russia wins the war, but also that the rest of Europe remains relatively stable. He has a vested interest in European markets continuing to thrive and remaining open to Chinese exports. That is why China is making nice eyes for European leaders to change their attitude towards China and stop seeing it as a security threat. And this is exactly where the global goals pursued by China and Russia diverge: Beijing wants stability, and Moscow - instability, Vaselie told ARD.
How should Europe react to all this? To this question, the China expert says that it is very important to recognize that China is a real threat to Europe's security. We are still talking about partnership and competition with China. So far, the Europeans have never made it clear that China is a security threat. And at the last NATO summit it was even stated that China is a "decisive engine of war".
The question now is how strategically NATO and the EU can join forces regarding the threat from China. At the same time, NATO's mandate with regard to China is extremely limited and we need to expand it in the context of Euro-Atlantic security. "If China questions our security here in Europe, we must be able to react within the framework of NATO," says Abigail Vaselier in her interview for ARD.