Why the nationalists can they expect a record result in the upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections in Romania? Last but not least, the fault for this lies with the previous president, Klaus Iohannis.
In recent years, Romania has not been talked about much on the European stage, although the country is the sixth most populous in the EU and is located on the south-eastern border of the Community and NATO - a place of strategic importance.
Romania has the longest border with Ukraine of any EU country and is an important base for US and NATO forces in this part of Europe. The military threat to Bucharest is also the greatest - Russian drones regularly explode over or near Romanian territory. However, Romania hardly participates in the debates about support for Ukraine, unlike Poland or the Baltic states.
This approach is largely due to President Klaus Iohannis, who has been in office for ten years. His characteristics are silence and non-participation in foreign policy. And Romania is a country where the president is considered a key participant in the formation of foreign policy and the most important voice in the domestic one.
Promises followed by passivity
Against this vacuum, a real election marathon will be held in Romania in the coming weeks: the first round of presidential elections tomorrow (November 24, 2024), parliamentary elections in a week (December 1, 2024) and the second round of presidential elections election another week later (December 8, 2024) if, as expected, none of the candidates gets an absolute majority in the first round.
After two terms, Klaus Iohannis is no longer eligible to run for office. He doesn't enjoy much support anyway. Ten years ago, Iohannis took office with big promises - to initiate reforms and fight corruption in the state. But he thus failed to position himself in the political jungle and sank into passivity. This is largely the reason why nationalist and anti-reformist formations are now popular.
The favorite for the presidential post is the current Prime Minister Marcel Cholaku from the Social Democratic Party (SDP), in which cadres from the Ceausescu regime found a political place. The party has dominated Romanian politics for over 30 years and is the only one in the Eastern Bloc that has not lost its support as the successor to the socialist regime.
Corruption scandals
Contrary to its name, the Social Democratic Party rather identifies itself with right-wing and nationalist politics mixed with left-wing social rhetoric. For many Romanians, the SDP is the embodiment of corruption and corruption networks in the post-communist state. However, it remains a leading political force in the rural areas of eastern and southern Romania.
Prime Minister Cholaku, who according to opinion polls will receive about 24 percent support, is a veteran of the party and has worked his way up from local politics in the early 1990s to the leadership seat. Cholaku represents the party's conservative-nationalist wing and has been in the news several times for alleged corruption scandals, including a recent luxury travel scandal. For many Romanians, however, he is the epitome of the predictable, average SDP politician who guarantees stability and calm and does not forget the "little people" despite possible corruption scandals. If he becomes president, Çolaku cannot be expected to take an anti-European turn similar to the one in Orban's Hungary, but rather that Romania will remain a loyal ally of the EU and NATO, but in domestic politics anti-corruption and judicial reforms will be stopped.< /p>
Moscow candidate, political and family dramas
With George Simion from the Alliance for the Unification of Romanians (AOR), the situation is different. The ultranationalist gathers around 15 percent support, but has nothing in common with the Romanian nationalists of the past - Simion has drawn from the experience of politicians like Trump and Orban and is known mainly from social networks. He is banned from entering Moldova and Ukraine because he claims that parts of both countries should be annexed by Romania. It is assumed that Simion has connections with the Russian secret services, but there is no evidence of this.
Elena Lasconi, leader of the liberal Union for the Salvation of Romania, is also fighting for the second place. The former famous journalist was nominated by the party, positioning itself as anti-corruption. However, there are many problems and internal disputes in this political force, and Lasconi's campaign reflects them. The candidate tries to balance between progressive politics and "closeness to people”. A few years ago, Lasconi announced that she voted against the referendum to legalize same-sex marriage, which caused a scandal after her daughter announced that she was part of the LGBTI community. Compared to her, for Marcel Cholaku, it is better for George Simion to go to the run-off - most Romanians will automatically support the "lesser evil", as it happened before.
Studies about the parliamentary elections are also ambiguous - the SPD will win about 25-35 percent of the votes, the nationalist party AOR - 15-21 percent, the same number will vote for the liberals. One thing is certain - Romanian nationalists and populists can expect a record result for them.