The war in Syria has revived. Coincidences exist only in tear-jerking novels. Today the world is purposeful and practical. There is no blank, but if it is obtained, it is immediately used to acquire dividends. A strategic objective is pursued.
Russia is preoccupied with Ukraine. A new front in Syria will come in handy. Lebanon will take a long time to recover from the overthrow of Hezbollah by Israel, and the supply of new weapons to the proxy from Tehran through Syria is not desirable.
For Ankara, Aleppo/Idlib is “Turkish homeland”, and putting Assad “on a leash” to meet Turkish conditions for control of his land is enough grounds for an attack on Aleppo, Syria's economic hub. It uses the terrorist organization "Hayat Tahrir al-Sham", HTS, whose roots and leaders are connected to Al-Qaeda, Al-Nusra, and even to the "Islamic State", but in collaboration with those Islamist groups that Ankara has been supporting for years and supplies to Assad's country.
Erdogan and Foreign Minister Fidan announce the official position regarding the attack in Aleppo and other cities such as Hama in Syria. „We are monitoring developments, continuing support for Syria's territorial integrity, working to prevent the PKK from taking advantage of the unrest, we want the Assad administration to sit down with the opposition for political solutions”.
No more, no less – Ankara wants to force the “Assad regime” to form a transitional governmentthat would include the opposition under the name of a political solution. "Hayat Tahrir al-Sham" will also be included, but with a slight softening of its image as a radical Islamist organization. And its positions.
But an immediate question arises as to what Turkey envisages for the territories controlled by the YPG, a military organization of the Syrian Kurds. They do not allow, for example, HTS to enter its areas of Aleppo and are actually fighting on the side of Assad's army against HTS and Ankara-backed terrorists.
The Erdogan administration is said to be considering this issue as part of its negotiations with the US. According to the Turkish side, these negotiations are promising and the assessment is that Turkey's isolation within NATO is over. Erdogan is apparently waiting for the Trump administration to enter the White House and is proposing that the PKK/YPG withdraw up to 30 km beyond the border and that the liberated areas be taken over by groups under Ankara's control.
In this situation, Washington can make the PKK/YPG i.e. the Kurds to do the job of blocking Iran's route to the Lebanon/Palestine line through Syria. Syria to be divided, weakened, isolated and subjugated. It will have no power to defend its oil fields, offshore gas, and whatever is left of secular Syria. Including the artifacts from the ancient lands and Palmyra. Not to mention the Christians.
Media in Ankara from calls for reconciliation with Assad is now flooded with propaganda like “mass murderer Assad who is in collaboration with the PKK against Turkey” or with claims that “the opposition is liberating Aleppo by fighting like lions” and also “the blood of the opposition has merged with the blood of our soldiers”.
The declaration of HTS as martyrs is separate. There is no doubt that the official power in Ankara is using the attack on Aleppo and other major cities in Syria as leverage to force Assad to meet the Turkish conditions. No matter that Lavrov spoke on the phone with Fidan, and Putin spent an hour explaining to Erdogan what the agreements of the Astana process were and why he should immediately stop the attacks on Aleppo.
Meanwhile, Iran's foreign minister has visited Turkey after Damascus for talks with Erdogan and Fidan, and a Syrian security delegation is in Antalya. Assad, for his part, has spoken with Putin and Sheikh of the UAE. The Russians attack HTS positions with "Dagger" missiles. from its military bases in Latakia and Tartus, and even from warships in the ports.
Iran announces the dispatch of ground troops, and Shia militias from Iraq are on the ground. Claims that Russia may give up its military bases in Syria in this situation and even has already withdrawn its ships from the bases is another hybrid attack. These are Moscow's only bases in the Mediterranean, and even the fighting in Ukraine will not force the Russians to lose Latakia and Tartus.
Many questions arise in this situation. Why Erdogan and Fidan keep repeating that “we are not in Aleppo”. They claim that “we are only observing”. Why is Aleppo falling so quickly even after the departure of Assad's army? Is this delusion or indolence? How is it that the Syrian army and its allies in Idlib and Aleppo did not find out about such a huge preparation, in which the cooperation between the HTS and YPG is not only visible, but also their support from Israel, the USA, Ukraine and the UK is not hidden? Was Assad's army unprepared or did they withdraw deliberately and with a plan? Why is Assad not protecting Aleppo, Syria's largest industrial and commercial center, as he did before?
The situation in Syria is becoming catastrophic. Assad didn't want the city destroyed? Or he attracts HTS and other foreign terrorists from Idlib along the Turkish border and thus uses operation “wolf trap” for liquidation? It is not clear and there are no answers. But Assad gained reputation and legitimacy only after taking Aleppo. It was a military victory that ensured political victories.
If Assad has a political victory today, it may also lead to a military victory, but who can tell?
At the same time, there is information about Ukraine's involvement in Syria. It is said that the Islamist groups are adopting the tactics of the Ukrainians on the Russian front. They are trained by Ukrainian instructors to work with unmanned aircraft. In Idlib, they also use them at night, which means that they have equipment with night cameras. The equipment and aircraft were supplied by Ukraine and are hardly out of supply from Western countries to Kiev.
Some in Ankara say this is in line with a US plan to divide Syria through the HTS and the PKK. Washington would hardly support the PKK just to “prevent of Iran”, but there is no doubt that the PKK is a thorn in Turkey's side. Still, demands for an independent Kurdish state or at least autonomy within Syria would undoubtedly contribute to something like a Kurdish Iraq, but within Turkey.
It is assumed that the HTS attack on Aleppo is part of a strategy to “draw new maps” in the region. And strength for such “cards” at this stage only the US and Israel undoubtedly have. There is talk of a “second state of Israel” putting the PKK in charge and weakening the Assad state is a necessary condition for the realization of such goals. And whether this will not be to the detriment of Turkey is a separate issue.
It is believed that Tel Aviv has no way but to get involved in the “Syrian scenario” and that he has even deployed a contingent of elite troops to the Golan Heights. A pretext for intervention can always be found. An operational intervention in the Golan Heights, if carried out by elite Israeli troops and special forces, cannot help but “rearrange the cards”. Another question is where a 50-year-old UN ceasefire agreement with Syria on the Golan Heights is going.
Russia, Iran and Turkey are reportedly preparing a meeting in Doha next week to seek a solution to Syria. Damascus reconciliation with Ankara as part of pressure from Moscow ?
It's hard to guess. Especially after the attack and capture of Aleppo and the facts that the YPG ie. the Syrian Kurds, on the one hand near Aleppo, are fighting on the side of Assad, and on the other hand, together with the US, they are hitting the forces of the Assad army in Deir ez-Zor, where there is a route for the transfer of Shia militias from Iraq to Syria.
The USA, for its part, is preventing aid from Iraq with airstrikes, i.e. Iran for Damascus in the Deir ez-Zor area. And this is currently the only help on the ground for Assad.
The balance of the war is therefore believed to be shifting against Assad, who cannot get help from Russia because of Ukraine and from Iran because of the war in Lebanon against Hezbollah. But both Russia and Iran are unlikely to leave Syria to be dismembered according to the plan of the forces behind the attacks on Aleppo.
Russian air support and possible Iranian intervention play an important role in the clashes that continue in both Aleppo and Hama. And Turkey's positions usually change depending on where the scales are tipped. To be observed.