After the overthrow of Assad, many Syrians hope for order and justice. But the question of power will not be easy.
"The resistance against the regime covered the whole country and this is one of the explanations for its abrupt end,", terrorism expert Bente Scheller told ARD. She notes that the international support given to Assad by Russia and Iran, as well as - that along with the offensive of the Islamist rebels, the Kurds in Eastern Syria and the Druze in the southern part of the country have become active. "They gave a signal to Damascus - all of Syria is against the regime."
In front of the German public-law media, Scheller predicted the development of things in Syria from now on, highlighting the desire of the Syrians for the transition to be carried out peacefully - without acts of revenge and bloodshed. But she emphasizes that many groups participated in the overthrow of the regime, which can now theoretically claim power. "There are chances of achieving unity," the expert told ARD, pointing out that the positions of the leader of the "Hayat Tahrir al-Sham" group are the strongest. Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, had already started using his civilian name Ahmed al-Sharaa. Here is what Bente Scheller explains in an interview with the German publication.
After 54 years of dictatorship, there is much work to be done
Syria is home to various ethnic groups, ethnicities and religions. Is there a threat of further conflicts?
B. Scheler: Naturally there are conflicts - in the context of the long history of oppression and favoring of certain groups. It is also clear that some have participated in the regime's crimes and will now try to avoid being brought to justice. There is a lot of work ahead - after 54 years of a very strict dictatorship, there is no way things can turn around suddenly.
The road will be steep, but the courage shown is important. Syrians have high hopes, but their feelings are mixed - I don't know anyone from Syria who doesn't feel fear, but at the same time, people are filled with extremely high hope.
The population has experienced a lot of suffering in recent years: persecution, repression, torture and above all the disappearance of family members without a trace. Over 100,000 people in Syria have disappeared without their families knowing where they are and now their relatives are hoping to see them again, hoping they will return.
The fight against Assad has been going on for years. Many of the opposition are in exile. Can they now be involved in the formation of a new government?
B. Scheller: They did not lose their contacts in Syria - only communication became more and more difficult, because the rest of the country under the Assad regime was under surveillance and, accordingly, free communication was impossible.
But also those who have been outside the country for a long time have kept their close ties with Syria and will now be included and engaged with all their experience gained over the years and with their political views, some of which they have jointly developed.< /p>
Positions of neighboring countries
What reaction can be expected from Syria's neighboring countries - Iraq, Turkey, Israel?
B. Scheller: Israel reacted cautiously and reinforced its parts of the Golan Heights, which form the border with Syria. From Turkey, Erdogan has already expressed hope that the maximum number of Syrian refugees - and they are about three million in Turkey - will return to their homeland. It is also clear that he is very skeptical of the eventual establishment of Kurdish autonomy and of the prospects for a federal state, such as they may be.
Iraq initially announced that it wanted to continue supporting Assad - in this regard, the relationship will need a fresh start. And Lebanon should also be considered - many Lebanese left their country during the fighting and fled to Syria. Now the returns are both ways. Politically, Lebanon is currently very weak and in deep crisis. But the fate of the two countries has always been closely linked. If there are clashes between the different religious groups in Syria, it will be important for Lebanon above all.