Why do GERB and Borisov want elections? There is no rational explanation for the course taken by them towards the eighth parliamentary elections. Only the conspiratorial explanations remain.
Comment from Daniel Smilov:
Bulgarian politics is close to folklore, and the distance between the two phenomena is constantly shortening. Therefore, the actions of politicians look less and less like following a rational plan to form a governing majority - and more and more like the heroic waving of a party flag.
Scenes from the folk theater
GERB, for example, are preparing to send Boyko Borisov to take the mandate to form a government, while proudly refusing the Turkish Pasha (in the form of their hated PP-DB) to sign any political declarations of political commitments. This gesture is romantic and will resonate in their electoral soul, but it also comes at a price - if it is done, the first mandate to form a government will be a wedding ring.
PP-DB also have their own heroic scene in the situation. They achieved significant success by convincing all official potential partners of GERB - BSP, ITN, APS - to sign the "sanitary cordon" about "The New Beginning" of Delyan Peevski. It is fair to say that there is nothing shameful or illogical about the signing - after all, "The New Beginning" accumulated enough grounds with pre-election and electoral actions to be ostracized. At least because of the use of state instruments for party purposes based on informal influence.
So far so good, but the PP - one part of the PP-DB coalition - seems to forget that the "sanitary cordon" is a management tool. It isolates a party from the governing majority. GERB's insistence on a signature under the declaration would be understandable if the PPs signaled that they would seriously sit down to negotiations for a governing majority after that. But to the extent that the signals they send are not unambiguous, it is not clear why GERB should sign the "cordon" at all.
In fact, even from the point of view of folklore, there is not much logic in our politics lately. It is not clear, for example, why GERB's pride as the first party suffers most from having to give up Sarafov's election and Peevski's quota in regulators and other bodies. Borisov gives each other (as it is sung in the song), but the regulator and the prosecutor do not give. And Borisov sometimes they give it, sometimes they don't. Any Martian anthropologist would be confused and would probably come to the wrong conclusion that for GERB, the most valuable are the interests of Delyan Peevski, standing higher even than the honor of their own leader.
The folk theater is perhaps just an apology to the voter, that they are led again as a fool to elections. The poor voter spoke seven times in less than four years, but apparently this is not enough for party members to understand his wishes. But the toy can become a crybaby and the eighth pronouncement can end an unprecedented period of freedom and economic prosperity, such as the last decades for Bulgaria.
Why do GERB want elections?
The most interesting question in this situation is why GERB prefer elections to forming a government in this parliament at the cost of a "sanitary cordon" against Delyan Peevski. After all, they are the largest group, they have the most opportunities for a majority, and if there is an election, it will be mainly because of their decisions. Here we leave aside the conspiratorial explanations that Borisov is strongly dependent on Peevski, who has already decided on a new vote:
1. Weakening and splitting of the PP-DB: The plan may be to hold another election, in which a second party "Vazrazhdane" will emerge, and the PP-DB will break up into small groups. Then everyone - BSP, ITN, PP, DB - will have to stand behind the "Eurosavior" Boyko Borisov even at the cost of including Delyan Peevski in the construction. The clash will be along the lines of Euro-Atlanticism-Eurasianism and the champions of Euro-Atlanticism will be Borisov and Peevski, who may turn out to be the second "Euro-Atlantic" power in parliament.
2. Opening valences of GERB to "Revival": The election of Trump in the USA is read in Bulgaria as an opportunity for greater interaction between GERB and national populists, why not "Revival". If it turns out that Trump is closer to Putin's positions on Ukraine and if some "conservative" begins in the US itself. bacchanalia, "Revival" - many hope - may look more and more decent.
3. Opening of valences of GERB to President Radev: It is not excluded that in the end Borisov and Radev will "come to an agreement" of "Trumpists" terrain. "America first" and Borisov and Radev followed her, one around the fireplace in the White House and the other behind Trump's back in Notre Dame. While the egos of the two "our big" cannot come to terms with his native opponent, humbled behind Trump's hyper-ego, they could find mutual understanding.
Risks
This wonderful new world that is opening up is too attractive for Borisov - it is he who is the real reason for the probable eighth parliamentary elections to which the country is headed. But dreams don't usually come true - or if they do, they lead to many tears being shed, as Truman Capote well knew. Because it is very likely that the situation after new elections will actually be the following:
- GERB to be in a more difficult situation to form a government;
- Again not being able to rule with "New Start" and Peevski independently due to the same reputational problems that weigh on them even now and which neither disappear, nor are "washed", nor are they forgotten;
- Again, they want to include PP-DB in some form in the management;
- Against whatever it is necessary to make compromises with the prime minister, sanitary cordons, etc. - and in order to receive mathematically lower support from the partner;
- To risk an implosion of the Romanian-style party system, in which more national populist players enter the parliament and make any governance impossible;
- To risk a possible populist wave around President Radev, "Revival" or a combination of the two;
- To risk that the cordon against Peevski, which is already a fact, will turn into a cordon against Borisov-Peevski and lead to an anti-corruption wave, combined with national populism, which will finally sweep them from the political scene.
The listed risks are risks for GERB and Borisov. To them it is proper to add the risks for the country, which are significant. From losing perspective on the Eurozone to deviating from the path of free democracies.
In short, there is no rational explanation on the part of GERB for a course towards eighth parliamentary elections. Conspiracies for addictions along the "New Beginning" axis remain.
And the romantic folkloric explanation for the proud flying of the party flag, of course.
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This comment expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial team and of DV as a whole.