"In the future, we will take decisive steps to realize our vision of one Turkey and one entire region free of terrorism," said Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in his New Year's speech. His words were a reference to the current process of reconciliation between Turks and Kurds, the beginning of which was laid about three months ago by Erdogan's coalition partner - Devlet Bahçeli, leader of the "Nationalist Movement".
In fact, for years, the ultranationalist Bahçeli and his party have insisted on the return of the death penalty, mainly to make it possible to execute the arrested leader of the banned PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party) Abdullah Öcalan. But three months ago, Bahçeli surprised the entire Turkish public with his new initiative. Now the "Nationalist Movement" is pursuing the idea of inviting Öcalan to parliament, where he could give a speech calling on PKK fighters to lay down their weapons.
Time for hope?
The PKK, founded in 1978, has been designated a terrorist organization by the EU and the US and has been in armed conflict with the Turkish state since 1984. Today, the Kurds number around 30 million. After the end of World War I, the territories inhabited by them were divided between Turkey, Syria, Iran and Iraq. Since then, they have been fighting for their own state, or at least for more self-determination. Turkey still refuses to grant them autonomy. Around 40,000 people died in the conflict between Turkey and the Kurdish PKK between 1984 and 2009. The founder of the PKK, Öcalan, has been in prison since 1999.
Against this backdrop, the Turkish ultranationalist Bahçeli surprised the Turkish public in early October 2024 by shaking hands in parliament with representatives of the pro-Kurdish "Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party" DEM.
A few days later, he appealed to the PKK leader Öcalan to lay down his arms, then referred to the "thousand-year-old brotherhood" between Turks and Kurds and said: "Turkey's problem is not the Kurds, but their separatist organization. Öcalan should come to parliament and announce that the PKK is disbanding." Öcalan responded positively and stated his readiness to "take the appropriate responsibility".
Following Bahçeli's appeal on December 28, two representatives of the pro-Kurdish DEM party visited Öcalan in prison and said they were "fulfilled with hope". Consultations are currently underway between DEM politicians with representatives of Erdogan's government, as well as the opposition.
Everything about Erdogan?
Some observers suggest that behind the current initiative lies a real political goal: to open the way for a new mandate for Erdogan after 2028, which would not be possible under the current constitution.
Technically, there are two options for Erdogan to run again: either the constitution be changed, or parliament decides on early elections. However, the ruling coalition lacks 45 votes for such a decision. The DEM has 57 MPs - and with their help, early elections could be organized.
Turkish political scientist Berk Esen sees another reason: Erdogan's Justice and Development Party could not win any elections at the moment, because it lacks the Kurdish vote. "Erdogan's system is in a deep political and economic crisis. We saw this during the local elections in the spring of 2023. Under the current conditions, Kurds would rather vote for opposition candidates," says Esen. And this is a trend that Erdogan would like to reverse. According to various estimates, Kurds represent about 15% to 20% of the Turkish population. The ruling coalition would have to do something to cause a turnaround, says Esen. Moreover, the initiative may not be an independent step by the "Nationalist Movement". "In our authoritarian system, such a move would not have been made without Erdogan's consent", Esen is convinced.
False optimism?
"When the Justice and Development Party lost the local elections on March 31, it realized that the strategy of cultural polarization was no longer working", also believes political scientist Deniz Yildirim. This is not the first time the Turkish government has tried to achieve reconciliation with the country's Kurds - and in the past there have been official initiatives to reach out to the Kurdish population, but they have all failed.
What are the prospects for success this time? "If politicians say publicly that they are full of hope and thus emphasize that peace is closer than ever, behind closed doors there must have been progress - the process must have advanced", Yildirim said, while warning against being overly optimistic.
"Turkey must of course solve this problem peacefully, without bloodshed. But it would be too naive to expect that this can happen in a time of authoritarian centralization."
There is no reconciliation across the border
At the moment, however, Turkey is pursuing a dual strategy towards the Kurds: while reconciliation with Öcalan and the PKK is being sought in the country, Turkish-backed militias across the border - in Syria - are fighting the Kurdish fighters from the "People's Protection Forces" YPG.
They see Turkey as a threat to their territorial integration - just like the PKK. Turkey perceives the YPG as the Syrian branch of the PKK, but the US supports them, which further complicates the balance of power in the region.
Turkey is demanding that the transitional government of Syria disband the Kurdish YPG militias, which control large parts of northern Syria. From a Kurdish perspective, Turkey's demands are unrealistic, notes political scientist Esen. "After years of bloodshed, the YPG has established itself as a power factor in northeastern Syria. No matter what agreement is reached in Turkey, it is highly unlikely that they will lay down their weapons."