When EU leaders gather in Brussels on Monday to discuss the future of European defense, France will be pitted against (almost) everyone else.
Paris has been adamant that European taxpayers' money should be spent on military systems designed and manufactured in Europe.
But many other countries have warned that excluding American arms manufacturers from EU subsidies would anger US President Donald Trump, several diplomats said.
“If we as the EU were to invest billions in defense capabilities at this point and firmly close the door on American defense, do you think that would sell well at Mar-a-Lago?“, asked a European diplomat, referring to Trump's residence in Florida.
Unlike France - the bloc's only nuclear power - countries such as Germany, Poland, the Netherlands and the Baltic states "have a strategic interest in keeping their allies close to us," the diplomat added.
The informal summit aims to review the EU's defense policy in response to the growing threat from Russia, including issues such as financing and weapons production, and to provide guidance to the European Commission, which is working on a proposal for a long-term defense policy.
One of the main goals of Monday's meeting is to find a common position on military equipment to be developed jointly with EU money. But the overly large role of Washington and American companies in Europe’s defense will be severely affected.
Some countries, especially those geographically close to Russia, want to buy ready-made weapons to build their armies to confront the Kremlin, as well as to produce foreign equipment under license.
“We are interested in the best equipment that can be delivered as quickly as possible,” Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosińska-Kamiś told POLITICO. He estimated that Poland has spent $60 billion on American equipment and billions more on weapons from South Korea.
Then there is the political aspect of ensuring that the United States, under the leadership of businessman Trump, sees value in maintaining its alliance with European countries. That is why Europe must ensure that it buys goods, including weapons, from the United States, said Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani.
“The idea that we have to attract the United States to want to stay in Europe is the most widely shared“, admitted a senior French military official, speaking on condition of anonymity to speak candidly. “I am afraid that France is a bit isolated and does not receive much support; other countries are more realistic“.
Trump-era upheavals
That would make the US president the most significant figure at Monday's meeting, even though he was not invited.
The fight over how much money to send within the bloc and how wide to open the door to arms manufacturers outside the EU is already taking place over the 1.5 billion euro European Defence Industry Programme. Although it is small - Kosciennik-Kamisz called its size a "joke" - it is a harbinger of a planned massive increase in EU defense spending.
Ahead of the summit, Poland and the Baltic states released a document calling for the EU to spend at least 100 billion euros on defense by 2027 - including by buying weapons from non-EU NATO allies. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said last year that the bloc should consider spending an additional 500 billion euros on defense over the next decade.
The United States is currently doing very well in strengthening Europe militarily. Between mid-2022 and mid-2023, 63% of all EU defense orders were made to American companies, and another 15% to other non-EU suppliers, according to last year’s Draghi report, which seeks to make Europe more competitive.
France is fighting to change that – with some support from Greece.
Last week, Greek Deputy Defense Minister Yiannis Kefalogiannis said that buying more weapons “developed and produced in the EU would lead to greater strategic autonomy, especially if NATO comes under pressure during Trump’s second term.”
An Elysee Palace official dismissed the idea that Paris was isolated. “There is no division between those who want to... buy American goods and those who want to set aside European money for European preferences,“ the official told reporters on Friday.
“There is a fairly broad consensus that once we start talking about what we want to do together - missiles, anti-missiles, drones, anti-drones, deep strikes - we need to develop common capabilities that the Europeans lack,“ the official added.
There will be a lot of cautious voices at Monday's meeting.
EU leaders will be joined at lunch by NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, who has been keen to keep a channel open to Trump to convince the US president of the value of the Atlantic alliance - including by looking at ways to make it easier and faster for Europeans to buy US weapons.
Over dinner on Monday, the leaders are hosting Keir Starmer - the first British prime minister to attend such a summit since Brexit. Starmer has also made a huge effort to keep Trump on his side.
No breakthrough
All this leaves European Council President Antonio Costa with a very difficult task of achieving a united position.
It is like “performing open-heart surgery on a top athlete,” a senior EU official said before the summit. “It is extremely important, sensible, potentially life-saving, but it is also very complex and requires a lot of skill.”
But as the official said, the leaders are facing a life-threatening situation.
Costa outlined them in his letter of invitation: Russia’s war in Ukraine, hybrid and cyber attacks.
“Europe must take greater responsibility for its own defense,” Costa wrote. “It must become more resilient, more efficient, more autonomous and a more reliable actor in security and defence.“
Expectations are not high that there will be any dramatic breakthrough.
“Brussels will try to give a positive signal,“ said former Italian ambassador to the EU Piero Benassi. “However, I fear that it is far from the needs that the current geopolitical situation would require.“
translation: Nick Iliev