Dmitry Glukhovsky achieved global success with his dystopian trilogy "Metro". However, the Russian writer, now in exile in Europe, was sentenced in absentia in 2023 to eight years in prison for his opposition to the war in Ukraine. On January 30, he published in French his collection "We. Diary of the Fall", which documents the dictatorial evolution of Vladimir Putin's Russia from the 2012 demonstrations to the suppressed Prigozhin rebellion. Winner of the 2023 Freedom Prize of the French newspaper L'Express, Dmitry Glukhovsky analyzes the "mediocrity" of the Russian regime, Putin's psychological motives, and the passivity of his fellow citizens. In an interview with the newspaper, the author bets that Donald Trump will offer Putin a "way out" in Ukraine, before a new war, which he believes is inevitable...
L'EXPRESS: After science fiction novels, you switched to political journalism. Does the current situation in Russia resemble a dystopia?
DMITRY GLUKHOVSKY: For a decade, I have been watching my country turn into a dictatorship. I realized that in Russia one can no longer remain silent. That is how this book appeared. Since 2022 and even earlier, we really feel as if we are living in a dystopia. Things that seemed impossible just a few years ago have become the norm. And what is worse, everyone has gotten used to it. It is as if the abnormality has become permanently established. Starting an open war in the 21st century seemed unthinkable. Now even Donald Trump is talking about territorial redistribution in relation to Greenland, Panama or Canada, while territorial integrity has been enshrined in international relations since the end of World War II. The open bombing of Ukrainians seemed crazy, given that Ukraine and Russia have a thousand-year coexistence. But we have become accustomed to this too. Russia experienced its first mobilization since the Great Patriotic War. A million people went to the front, but the remaining 140,000 million Russians have become accustomed to this lottery of death, where anyone can serve as cannon fodder. Despite all these extraordinary events, the restaurants in Moscow are crowded. Russians do not realize that they live in a dystopia. Or, if they do, they do everything to suppress this feeling. Thus, sales of antidepressants reached their peak, exceeding the figures from the beginning of the war in 2022, which, however, became an absolute record.
L"EXPRESS: In your opinion, the "mediocre" under Putin simply took the place of the "idiots" from the Soviet era. If so, then how can we explain the stability of the regime?
GLUHOVSKY: The regime is holding on because no one around Putin dares to overthrow it. He surrounded himself with people who are more mediocre than him, who owe him everything, who cannot do without him, because their value is zero. Hence their absolute subordination. In a healthy company, when you hire employees, you are looking for people who are likely to replace you one day. But in a totalitarian society, where everyone fears for their own survival, the leader, on the contrary, is looking for incompetents. The only area where the regime has appointed competent officials is finance. In reality, Putin’s Russia is a neo-feudal state. Each lord has his own economic sector that provides him with influence and wealth. For example, FSB generals own food companies. Their holdings are registered in the names of their ex-wives, mistresses or children. Putin’s famous Black Sea palace, which Navalny exposed, is a private structure with shared ownership. It contained the names of Putin’s former judo partners in St. Petersburg, as well as the ex-wife of an FSB officer. This is a practice inherited from the 1990s. Putin built a real royal palace, but registered it in the names of "homeless".
L"EXPRESS: You explain that Putin, parachuted into office without natural legitimacy, suffers from an imposter complex. How could this be the key to understanding his evolution?
GLUHOVSKY: Putin was not prepared for this position. If you go back and watch old videos, you will see a man who is not sure of himself, a man who is used to staying in the shadows. Suddenly, by absolute chance, he becomes the head of the FSB, and then the head of state of a former great power. Even in the chaos of Russia in the 1990s, this rise is incredible. Suffering from an impostor complex, Putin wanted to prove to himself and the world the legitimacy of his rise to power. Hence the frequent resort to the concepts of "fate" and historical mission. He constantly refers to his predecessors such as Stalin, Catherine II or Peter the Great... They are historical giants. It is normal for your mind to skip when you constantly compare yourself to them. This gives him a feeling of omnipotence, close to that of God. But over time, even this omnipotence gets tiresome. That's why Putin wants to make history by changing the rules of the world order and restoring the Russian Empire. It all starts with self-confidence. If he were truly elected by the people, with democratic legitimacy, he wouldn't need to prove anything. Besides, Putin is over 70 and knows he only has ten years left. Will he go down in history as a corrupt ruler with his tasteless palace, full of gilded rooms and a pole dancing area? Or will he be equal to Peter the Great?
L"EXPRESS: You describe him "with a face like a wax statue - motionless, swollen by an unknown substance - of which only Putin's eyebrows from twenty years ago remain"...
GLUKHOVSKY: The cosmetic surgery is probably the result of the bad influence of his former friend Silvio Berlusconi. He was the head of a mafia state who got away with everything, a great charmer who enjoyed life while he was still in power. Berlusconi organized "bunga bunga" orgies to which Russian leaders were invited. In addition to Botox, Putin also borrowed his taste for Brioni suits from the style of the Italian mafia. On the other hand, he remains a KGB man and shows nothing of his personal life. Stalin never showed anything either. But if someone wants to be the equivalent of a living god, he should not show anything earthly. In a sense, he makes people believe that he is married to Russia. His lovers, his children with Alina Kabaeva are hidden. This distance, which leaves no room for emotions, forms a shield. Putin does not acknowledge his children, does not declare his assets, does not allow himself to express anger, fear or doubt on television, he only grins. He is not even aging in a human way.
L"EXPRESS: How do you explain the passivity of the Russian population? Will the economic sanctions that are beginning to put pressure on the country have an impact on public opinion?
GLUKHOVSKY: Western sanctions are too timid. 300 billion Russian assets were indeed frozen abroad, but the same amount of private capital was able to be repatriated and injected back into the economy. Western countries continue to indirectly buy gas and Russian oil because they allow China and India to buy them. It is with this money that Putin was able to wage his war and bear the cost of the sanctions. After three years of conflict, the economic effects are certainly being felt. But for now, this remains bearable for Russians. Inflation is rising, but life goes on. The upper elite has replaced Mercedes with Chinese vehicles, which are also electric. Western luxury goods are imported through Kazakhstan. They cost 20% more, but honestly, those who buy them can afford it.
L"EXPRESS: Can the regime last much longer?
GLUHOVSKY: I don't think so. The war is eating up almost half of the state budget. That's why Putin is motivated to make a deal with Donald Trump to end this conflict. Of course, he will pretend that everything is fine and try to make people believe that he can continue this conflict indefinitely. In Russia, the average monthly salary is 400 euros. Russians who volunteer in this war can earn up to 2,000 euros a month. And now the first payment upon enlistment can be up to 50,000 euros. There is a competition between different regions to see who can send the most soldiers to Ukraine. And if a person is killed, his family gets 60,000 euros. But even with these financial incentives, we see that this is no longer enough, so the recruitment of North Korean soldiers has begun. Putin knows very well that if he announces a second mobilization, it will be a factor of instability. So he is content with recruiting mercenaries, but with a constant decline in quality, because the recruits are getting older and the soldiers who fight for money are becoming less motivated than at the beginning.
L"EXPRESS: Will Donald Trump, who has returned to the White House, offer him a way out?
GLUHOVSKY: Putin cannot take the initiative to make peace because it would damage his image, his political survival and his historical legacy. But if someone offered it to him, it would really give him a way out. And Trump wants to present himself as a peacemaker, but he is unpredictable. Apart from his opposition to immigration, he can change his mind on any issue. Today, Putin needs peace, but he does not want to lose face. Trump also does not want to appear weak. If Putin gives him the impression that he is the one taking the initiative, that he is a strong man who manages to impose peace in Europe, that could work. In any case, it will be a battle of egos. In a country where information is tightly controlled, Putin can successfully present a military defeat as a victory. In any case, the status quo in Ukraine will preserve his regime, which could last for decades. Domestically, he will certainly strengthen his grip on the Russian population, especially through digital technologies, drawing on the experience of his Chinese ally. And it will probably put even more emphasis on conservative ideology. Abortion is already under threat. The regime will go even further in its rhetoric about "family, tradition, church". We also know that dictatorships always need to create external enemies. Therefore, the Kremlin will blame its neighbors, whether Lithuania or Latvia. Putin will need a new war. Since he came to power, he has not stopped waging war for a moment: first in Chechnya, then in Georgia, in the Donbass, and for the past three years throughout Ukraine. A temporary peace will only harden Putin and push his regime in a fascist and revisionist direction. In 2022, Europeans managed to mobilize, helping Ukraine militarily and economically. But today they are tired. They want good news. Even if the average Frenchman or German has not felt the consequences of this war, unlike Ukrainians, he can no longer stand to watch bombings on TV. Besides the fact that a peace risks having terrible strategic consequences, with perhaps a world war in ten years... Inside the European house there will now be a wild beast, ready to pounce on a new victim at any time. Europeans will have to live in fear. But we will also get used to this situation. We will say that Russia is like that and that there is nothing we can do.
L"EXPRESS: But what should be done?
GLUHOVSKY: I am not calling for an invasion of Russia to overthrow Putin. But we know that financially weakening a dictatorship is the only way to prevent it from having global ambitions. Let us at least deprive Putin of the means to curb his revisionist ambitions.