Erdogan is undoubtedly a regional leader with large-scale ambitions and a proverbial policy of balance between East and West. But this time he definitely went too far.
Is it because he has a congress of his AKP (Justice and Development Party) on February 23 and is announcing changes to the government with the inclusion of Albayrak, his son-in-law, as a minister, which is disputed within his own party?
Or because of problems with his declining rating against the backdrop of the noticeable rise of the opposition in the person of the HRP (Republican People's Party) and the party of Erbakan's son, who was once Erdogan's mentor?
The problems in the economy not only anger ordinary Turks and activate opposition parties, but in this case even representatives of entrepreneurs openly raised the issue of returning secular education and appointing experts to state institutions, not ignorant people from the AKP. In such a situation, foreign policy is not only an outlet for diverting attention, but also for stabilizing one's own positions.
The meeting with Zelensky in Ankara, Beştepe residence, at a time when Lavrov and Rubio are negotiating with delegations in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, is an opportunity to prove one's place in international affairs. But Erdogan's claims that the new summit between Russia, the US and Ukraine should be held in Turkey, which they discussed for about 3 hours with Zelensky, turned out to be only proof that the opportunities are simply not enough.
At this very moment, there is no way to play on equal terms with Russia and the US. The EU is also not doing well, it is clear. But it is difficult to hide the bitterness that once, having organized as a mediator a meeting between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul (unsuccessful, by the way), Putin and Trump have now preferred Riyadh as the place for the negotiations. Each for their own reasons.
For Washington, Saudi Arabia is a powerful source of oil and gas, a valuable ally and business partner in the Middle East. And Erdogan's anti-Israel rhetoric is not at all acceptable to the new government in the White House, including in relation to Gaza and the definition of Israel's policy in the strip as genocide. No matter that Ankara's trade, economic and military relations with Tel Aviv are known at this stage.
And the fact that Erdogan is perceived by both Washington and Moscow as a patron of radical religious organizations and is an important supporter of the “Muslim Brotherhood” in the Middle East region brings additional negatives for decisions that ignore the ambitions of the “sultan” for a decisive role not only in negotiations, but also in Syria, for example.
This is also unacceptable for Saudi Arabia and the UAE. They have also put the Turkish-backed Islamic State, Al Nusra, Al Qaeda and their derivatives, along with the “Muslim Brotherhood”, on the list of terrorists. By the way, Tulsi Gabbard, the new head of US intelligence under Trump, directly demanded sanctions and accused Erdogan of supporting radical terrorist organizations in Syria. She is convinced that Presidents Obama and Clinton also nurtured and used these religious organizations in Syria. They almost consciously founded the Islamic State.
At the same time, for the Russians, the era of “friend Putin” is clearly over. It is hard to swallow Turkey's attack on Russia in Syria. After the deception with the Astana agreements between Moscow, Tehran and Ankara on Syria, a policy of supposedly reconciling with Assad in Damascus and negotiations for the normalization of relations between the two countries began, which was supported by the Russians.
But it turned out that behind the scenes Erdogan had arranged the overthrow of Assad through radical organizations supported by Turkish forces, which, led by Joulani, already entered Damascus without problems. Assad was forced to fly to Moscow. The Turkish flag waved over Aleppo, and Erdogan's daughter announced that these were indigenous Turkish lands that belonged to the Ottoman Empire, i.e. they are ours.
There is information that Ankara also insisted on the closure of the Russian military bases in Tartus and Latakia, which Moscow is trying to preserve through direct negotiations with the rulers in Damascus. Putin even spoke on the phone with Sharaa, now the president of Syria, about this issue. However, let's not forget that for years the grain for Syria came from Russia.
The other vector of Turkish ambitions is the policy of influence and role against Russia's interests in the Caucasus, the development of neo-Ottoman projects in the so-called Turkic world in Central Asia, the intrigues in Abkhazia, and the sanctions imposed by Ankara on Russian companies and restrictions on trade due to pressure from Washington, etc.
All actions that led to the departure of Russians from Turkey and their displacement to the UAE and Saudi Arabia. They do not require visas for Russians. The UAE also carried out the prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine in October 2024. Separately, there is the topic of Erdogan's personal friendship with the head of MI-6, Richard Moore, former London ambassador to Ankara. And the Kingdom, according to Moscow, has been an irreconcilable enemy of Russia for centuries, to this day.
It is no coincidence that the Russians have a saying "if you defeat a Turk, he will kiss your hand up to the shoulder until he bites it off". The two countries have fought 13 wars and only the Crimean, they say, was lost by the Russian Empire. But the whole of Europe, led by Great Britain, fought against the Russians at that time, together with Turkey.
Now, at the meeting with Zelensky, Erdogan states that "I have conveyed Turkey's support for the territorial integrity of Ukraine. This war, which caused the death of innocent people, must end". He adds that "we have made intensive efforts to establish peace with the understanding that there will be no winners in the war and no losers in the peace".
Is this formulation acceptable to Moscow? The continuation is that "we implemented the Black Sea Grain initiative and sought to be a reliable mediator with concrete results". It was done for 3 years. It means that Turkey is the ideal host for a “peace meeting” because it has done “the most for peace in Ukraine” and this ”coincided with Trump's policy of a quick end to the war”.
But not a word that the grain initiative benefits Ankara, is used to deliver weapons by sea to Kiev, and does not feed the poor people in Africa with Ukrainian grain. In Russia, these statements are called “peace in Turkish”. And to Zelensky, Erdogan says that “we appreciate Zelensky's steps regarding the rights of our compatriots, the Crimean Tatars, who are fighting for the territorial integrity of Ukraine”.
Crimea is not recognized as Russian by Turkey. And the Kremlin is aware that "Turkish friends do not miss an opportunity to strike at Russia's weak points - in Syria, Africa, the Caucasus". They even say that they have activated their agents, separatists and migrants in Russia, for unacceptable actions. A kind of "end of the abnormal friendship".
But for Erdogan "the territorial integrity of Ukraine is our mandatory condition and its sovereignty is mandatory. There are no losers in peace". And this after statements by the team and Trump himself that Kiev will be forced to give up part of its territory in order to stop active military operations in Ukraine! Moreover, Trump has already announced how surprised the world will be when it learns the true number of deaths in this war.
However, even at the meeting with Zelensky, Erdogan is trying not to completely close the door on relations with Moscow and claims that "both in the meetings of my foreign minister with his interlocutor and in my meetings with Putin, I will secure the path to peace and take steps."
It is hard to believe that this time Moscow will accept these statements as benevolent. It will lower itself like it did when the Russian SU-25 was shot down on the Turkish-Syrian border and when the Russian ambassador was killed in Ankara. But it is more than clear that, according to old practice, the Russians will not close the door tightly to the Turks. The changes are headlong and it is not known when and who will be needed for interests in a given area. But there will be, as some in Moscow say, a policy of “an eye for an eye and a tooth for a tooth”.
And the Kurds are a lever that can be used in certain situations. They are an ally in Syria not only of the Americans and these days they are in intensive negotiations with Sharaa and want to be included in the new Syrian army. And there are more than 20 million in Turkey itself. As they say, it is yet to come.
Whatever Zelensky and Erdogan agreed on in Ankara, Trump has already expressed dissatisfaction with the steps of what Russia calls the “illegitimate president of Kiev”. He declared him a dictator and did not hide his anger at his behavior. This was followed by a step back from Zelensky and a peaceful proposal to conclude a deal requested by the American side.
Apparently, Gen. Kellogg was quite convincing during his visit to the Ukrainian capital. Which Trump determined that Moscow could take over, but it didn't. Not that the donkeys won't stop kicking, but we shouldn't forget that then the donkeys suffer.
That's how it is with empires that have shown resilience in historical terms. The strong dictate the terms. In this case, they are prominent. And they talk on an equal footing. And how Erdogan will handle such a situation remains to be seen.