Although the world's attention is focused mainly on the temporary suspension of US military aid to Ukraine, in fact, there was one dangerous detail in Donald Trump's press conference tonight that deserves special focus. The press conference in question was called for a specific reason: the US president announced that the largest Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), will make additional investments worth $100 billion in the US industrial base for chip production. This is in addition to the already implemented investments in the US economy in this high-tech industry worth $65 billion (concentrated mainly in Phoenix, Arizona, where the production of 4-nanometer chips began at the beginning of this year), promised by the Taiwanese company in question. In this respect, Trump's policy is a continuation of that of Biden, who in 2022 signed the CHIPS and Science Act, which provides for investments in semiconductor production worth over $50 billion.
But the problem with the press conference in question came in Trump's response to a journalist's question about the prospect of moving this Taiwanese chip industry to the United States. The American president replied: "This will at least provide us with a position in which we will have in this very important business, we will have a very large part of it in the United States, if something happens to Taiwan."
We ignore the fact that during the election campaign Trump accused Taiwan of stealing the American chip manufacturing industry (and at that time Taipei had not only not taken anything, but on the contrary, was already investing in this American sector). We also leave aside the fact that candidate Trump at that time said that Taiwan should pay for the protection that the island receives from the American military. Taipei, of course, pays for itself by traditionally purchasing weapons from Washington, which is the island's largest supplier of military hardware. Late last year, the United States authorized the sale of the NASAM surface-to-air defense system, radar systems, and support elements for F-16 fighter jets to Taiwan. According to Reuters information from earlier this year, Washington and Taipei are currently in talks to negotiate new orders for American weapons worth between $7 billion and $10 billion, with an emphasis on the acquisition of cruise missiles and HIMARS missiles.
The problem with Trump's above-quoted words is fourfold.
First, they could be interpreted by China as an opportunity for a deal with the United States on Taiwan, in which China acquires the island, and the United States - at least partially - the Taiwanese chip industry, which would be relocated to North America. The strategic importance of the island, beyond being the world's semiconductor manufacturing capital, is well known: it is the unsinkable aircraft carrier located in the South China Sea, in close proximity to China. When controlled by American partners in the region, Taiwan is part of the "first chain" of islands (Japan, Taiwan, Malaysia) and plays a deterrent role towards China. It is for such reasons that the Joe Biden administration has expanded the US military presence in the Philippines and specifically on the islands of Luzon and Palawan, where 4 additional US bases have been established. If the Celestial Empire regains control of Taiwan, the island will become another "outpost" on China's defensive line, in the form of militarized islands in the South China Sea, which are intended to deter hostile access to Beijing's mainland coastal territories.
Secondly, these words contradict the joint statement of Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba last month, in which they affirmed the principle of a peaceful resolution of problems in the Taiwan Strait, excluding unilateral actions to change the status quo in the region, whether through military or economic action. The issue of Taiwan's independence is of particular sensitivity for Tokyo, since if the island returns to Chinese custody, the Land of the Rising Sun believes that it will become much more difficult for it to defend its own islands located nearby. Especially against the background of the fact that China (and Taiwan) dispute Japanese control over the nearby Senkaku Islands.
Third, the assumption that "something could happen to Taiwan" is a departure from the long-standing and bipartisan American policy of strategic ambiguity towards Taiwan. The idea of this strategic ambiguity is that the island's security should be ensured to a sufficient extent so that China would pay a disproportionately high price if it wanted to conquer it, but at the same time, Taipei's security should never be excessive so as not to provoke the island's authorities to declare independence, because this would be a reason for a war for China, in which the United States does not want to participate.
Last but not least, such signals create a prerequisite for revising the American policy of "One China" (this is part of the heavy and controversial legacy of Henry Kissinger, since whom the US has recognized that there is one China on both sides of the Taiwan Strait), which policy, however, explicitly states that if there is a reunification between China and Taiwan, it must be the result of a consensus between Beijing and Taipei and be achieved by peaceful means. There is still no such desire for the island to be included in China, as the authorities in Taipei have rejected compromise versions of the principle of Hong Kong's special status over the years, before the Celestial Empire compromised the region's autonomy. The "One China" case is very complex - and confused previous presidents such as George W. Bush and Joe Biden - which is why skepticism that the current US administration has the capacity to navigate it is normal. However, the executive branch in Washington has already shown us how it may have prioritized containing China, but has no idea what AUKUS (President Trump) and ASEAN (Pentagon chief Higgsett) are.
The statements of the American president regarding Taiwan mark the next step in Donald Trump's desire for the United States to position itself as best as possible in the field of high-tech production. If so far we have witnessed how Washington is willing to exploit the extraction of so-called critically important minerals - in parallel with the proposed agreement with Ukraine, Washington is also negotiating for Uzbekistan's rare earth minerals - which are of extreme importance, including for the military-industrial complexes, then the comments of the American president regarding Taiwan leave the impression that at the negotiating table not only the raw materials of the countries will be discussed, but also their production.
The situation with Taiwan is beginning to resemble that with Ukraine. Trump has a declarative desire for peace and containment of Russia and China, but in fact he is creating the conditions for the strengthening of the role of Moscow and Beijing in their geopolitical peripheries. Trump (and J.D. Vance for the last time tonight) promoted the idea that the agreement on rare earth minerals between Washington and Kiev is a form of security for Ukraine. But Taiwan and TSMC - after planning investments worth 165 billion dollars, some of which have already been implemented - heard that in fact "something could happen to them". And Taipei is making these investments precisely so that nothing happens to it.
But Ukraine has rare earth minerals, and Taiwan - the most serious semiconductor industry. In the world of Donald Trump, who interprets the international system as a market, and individual countries - as stalls, Kiev and Taipei have something to offer. And what does the Bulgarian stall have?