"Putin took a step that allows Sergei Shoigu to preserve his dignity. The Russian president chose as an occasion the reorganization in the government, which usually takes place at the beginning of each new presidential term. So everything looks natural – removing Shoigu at any other time would have been a clear expression of discontent. Now Shoigu will head the National Security Council, which shows that Putin continues to consider him loyal and is not completely giving up on him," says Russia expert Margarete Klein from the Berlin-based "Science and Politics" foundation in a comment to ARD.< /p>
Why was Shoigu replaced
She points out that Shoigu has great political weight in Russia and has been one of the most popular politicians in the country for over 30 years. At the same time, however, his popularity suffered after the war, Klein points out, emphasizing that this was not the decisive criterion for Putin. “Much more decisive are military incompetence and conflicts between the defense industry and the Ministry of War, as well as corruption threatening the fulfillment of military objectives. The open battle for power with the former head of the “Wagner“ Yevgeny Prigozhin also harmed Shoigu, although the minister still managed to win her over in the end”, Margarete Klein told ARD.
The German public-law media, in turn, point out that Shoigu is by no means the only one suspected of self-enrichment. In this regard, Klein notes that corruption is the lubricant of the system and is not uncommon in the military, it is tolerated and encouraged as long as it does not negatively affect the main objective. “Opportunities for enrichment grew alongside increased military spending, while the war exposed the consequences of military corruption. Almost 30 percent of the Russian budget is dedicated to military spending, the country strives for victory and therefore looks more closely at corruption in this sector than in others.“ According to the expert, the Russian leadership has apparently already stopped believing that Shoigu is the one who can win the war.
What exactly is expected from Belousov
Klein commented on the selection of the technocrat Belousov as the new defense minister, noting that Russia is preparing for a long war that will be won by whoever produces modern weapons in the most efficient way. “That is why the choice falls on Belousov from the economic sphere, who is not connected to the military, but is a loyal technocrat. A person has been chosen who has no ties to the Ministry of War and will be able to be controlled more easily by the Kremlin. In addition, it is associated with the hope that the giant funds in the Ministry of Defense will be invested as effectively as the Kremlin wants – something Shoigu clearly failed to do.“ According to other observers, Belousov's direct dependence on Putin, as well as the fact that he does not belong to any of the factions vying for influence in the Kremlin, will make him less susceptible to corruption.
When asked by the ARD what Belousov is expected to do differently, the expert from the “Science and Politics” gives the following answer: “Belousov will try to increase the efficiency of the military industry and accelerate modernization. This means that the economy and the military will become much more closely linked in the defense industry, because until now the needs of the military have not necessarily matched what the defense industry has been able to supply. It is about innovative technologies and artificial intelligence“.
In front of DV, the political scientist Nina Khrushcheva, granddaughter of Nikita Khrushchev, summed things up like this: “As was already said in the Kremlin, Belousov will have to fit the military sector into the overall economy of Russia or vice versa - transfer the Russian economy to military rails&rdquo ;. According to Khrushcheva, Belousov is a compromise figure – especially for liberal economists, but also for extreme supporters of the strong role of the state in the economy, to which Belousov himself belongs.
Conclusions for the West
Margarete Klein shares her opinion with ARD about what all this will mean for the West: “Russia is betting that Ukraine will not receive from the West as many and as modern weapons as it needs, and Russia itself in the future will be able to produce more. The West should bear this in mind. And it must monitor how consistently and with what quality the Russian defense industry produces new weapons systems to provide to the army – for example in the field of artificial intelligence, with automated and semi-automated combat systems”. The expert points out that even outside of Ukraine, all this can increase the Russian threat to the West.
Ekart Aretc ARD | Grzegorz Šimanovski