Due to the reckless plans of Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, the Horn of Africa is on the brink of a war that will threaten the region and seriously affect the rest of the world , write Afyare Elmi and Yusuf Hassan in the “New York Times". The two are professors at the city university in Mogadishu - the capital of Somalia.
Ethiopia wants access to the sea
The catalyst for the conflict is Abiy's obsession with making Ethiopia a landlocked country. Last year, he said the country should get one through negotiations or force. Somalia, the weakest of the five landlocked countries bordering Ethiopia, is the most obvious target. On January 1, Abiy signed a memorandum of understanding with the president of Somaliland, a self-proclaimed state on the territory of Somalia. In exchange for the official recognition of the Republic of Somaliland, Ethiopia will receive a 12-mile naval base in the Gulf of Aden.
This is a clear violation of Somalia's sovereignty, write the two professors from Mogadishu and recall the long history of Ethiopian interventions in the country. Somalia rejected the memorandum between Addis Ababa and Somaliland, and the country's position was supported by the United Nations, the African Union, the United States and the European Union.
Tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia have been rising in recent weeks, with Ethiopia twice sending troops into Somalia in June. In July, a local militia in Somalia seized two truckloads of weapons and ammunition sent from Ethiopia, meaning Addis Ababa is also bringing weapons into the country.
Addis Ababa and Cairo have also been at loggerheads for years
Somalia has threatened to expel Ethiopian troops from African peacekeeping forces and approved a defense pact with Egypt in July - in addition to one signed earlier in the year with Turkey. Ankara tried to intervene as a mediator, but failed to find a solution. A new round of negotiations is to be held next month, according to “Reuters”.
Egypt has already sent military aid to Somalia. Cairo has been in conflict with Ethiopia for years because of Addis Ababa's plans to build a huge dam on the Nile River, which could seriously limit the flow of water to Egypt, the Reuters agency recalls.
A war would be disastrous for both countries
A war would be devastating for the region, notes the “New York Times”. Somalia, which is slowly recovering from a devastating three-decade civil war, will hardly be able to cope. Ethiopia is engaged in numerous conflicts within its borders, but also with neighboring Eritrea and Sudan. Another front stretching thousands of kilometers could bring the country to collapse. The Red Sea is important to the security of countries such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Yemen and Sudan, and the US, China and some European countries maintain a military presence there.
East Africa is extremely important for international trade and security. The Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea connect Asia to Europe, North and South America, and the Horn of Africa serves as Asia's gateway to the entire African continent. East Africa is too unstable for such dangerous adventures, the two authors also comment.