Chaos in the Kremlin! What are Vladimir Putin's options for responding to long-range missiles

Vladimir Putin's options to strike back if the West allows Ukraine to use its long-range missiles to strike Russia could include striking British military sites near Russia or, as a last resort , conducting a nuclear test to show its intentions, three analysts say, Reuters writes.

As East-West tensions over Ukraine enter a new and dangerous phase, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and US President Joe Biden held a meeting on September 13 in Washington to discuss whether to allow Kiev to use US missiles long-range ATACMS or British Storm Shadow missiles against targets in Russia.

On Thursday, President Putin issued his clearest warning yet that the West would fight Russia directly if it took such a step, which he said would change the nature of the conflict.

He promised "adequate" response, but did not specify what it would include. In June, however, he spoke of the possibility of the West's enemies being armed with Russian weapons to strike Western targets abroad, and of deploying conventional missiles far from the United States and its European allies.

Ulrich Kühn, a weapons expert at the Institute for Peace and Security Policy Research in Hamburg, said he did not rule out the possibility that Putin might choose to send some sort of nuclear message -- such as testing a nuclear weapon to intimidate the West.

"This would be a dramatic escalation of the conflict," he said in an interview. "Because the question is, what kind of arrows are left for Mr. Putin to shoot if the West still goes ahead after that, other than actual use of nuclear weapons?"

Russia has not tested a nuclear weapon since 1990, the year before the collapse of the Soviet Union, and a nuclear explosion would mark the beginning of a more dangerous era, Kuhn said, warning that Putin may feel he is being seen as weak. in its responses to NATO's growing support for Ukraine.

"Nuclear tests would be something new. I wouldn't rule it out, and it would be consistent with Russia over the last few years breaking up a number of international security agreements it has signed over the decades," he said.

Gerhard Mangot, a security specialist at the University of Innsbruck in Austria, said in an interview that he also thinks it's possible, though he says it's unlikely, that Russia's response will involve some form of nuclear signal.

"The Russians could conduct a nuclear test. They have made all the necessary preparations. They could detonate a tactical nuke somewhere in the eastern part of the country just to demonstrate that (they) mean it when they say we're going to go nuclear eventually"

Russia's ambassador to the UN, Vasyl Nebenzya, told the UN Security Council on Friday that NATO "would be a direct party to hostilities against a nuclear power" if it allowed Ukraine to use longer-range weapons against Russia.

"You should not forget about it and think about the consequences," he declared.

Russia, the world's largest nuclear power, is also in the process of reviewing its nuclear doctrine - the circumstances under which Moscow would use nuclear weapons. Putin is being pressured by an influential foreign policy hawk to make it more flexible to open the door to a limited nuclear strike on a NATO country.

BRITISH COUNTERSHAKE

In the case of Britain, Moscow is likely to declare that London has moved from a hybrid puppet war with Russia to direct armed aggression if it allows Kiev to launch Storm Shadow missiles at Russia, former Kremlin adviser Sergey Markov commented on the social media platform Telegram on Friday. .

Russia is likely to close the British embassy in Moscow and its embassy in London, strike British drones and military aircraft near Russia, such as over the Black Sea, and possibly fire missiles at the F-16 fighter jets that carry the Storm Shadow in their bases in Romania and Poland, predicted Markov.

Putin has tried and failed to draw red lines for the West before, prompting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky - who has urged the West to be less cautious when it comes to confrontation with Moscow - to dismiss their significance.

But Putin's latest warning about long-range missiles is seen in Russia and beyond as something he would have to do if London or Washington allow their missiles to be used against Russia.

Mangot, of the University of Innsbruck, argued that the way Putin's warning was shown repeatedly on Russian state television created an expectation that he would have to carry it out.

Dmitry Peskov, Putin's spokesman, told a press briefing on Friday that Putin's message was "extremely clear and unambiguous".

Markov, the former Kremlin adviser, notes that "Russia has decided to break" the strategy of "cooking a frog on a slow fire", referring to the gradual increase of Western aid to Ukraine, aimed at not provoking a sharp Russian response.

"The step that the West is now planning next is small, but it crosses a red line that we will indeed be forced to respond to. We will consider you to be at war with us".

Sergei Mironov, leader of a pro-Kremlin political party, said in a press statement on Friday: "The moment of truth has come for the West - does it want full-scale war with Russia.

ESCALATION IN UKRAINE

Barring the rattling of nuclear sabers or strikes on British assets, more predictable responses could include stepping up Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, Kuhn believes.

Mangot predicts that Kiev will bear the brunt of the Russian military response if the West gives it the green light it has requested, and does not expect a Russian military attack on NATO territory.

Another option would be for Russia to escalate "hybrid" actions such as sabotage in Europe or interference in the US election campaign, notes Kuhn.

Mangot believes that the danger for the West is that it does not know where Putin's red lines really are.

"Allowing Ukraine to use Western weapons, aided by Western satellite imagery (and) Western military advisers is something that very closely impinges on vital Russian interests," he said.

"That's why I think those (people) who say: "Well, nothing will happen, let's just do it,'' are wrong.