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Moldova: The success of Maya Sandu and the defeat of the Russian camp

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Nov 5, 2024 10:22 108

This election day was unlike any other in Europe. Moldova's crucial presidential runoff was marked by record turnout, especially abroad, but was marred by large-scale attempts to interfere in the election process and fraud. There were bomb threats at polling stations that were temporarily closed, as well as people brought in en masse from Russia and Turkey to vote for the candidate close to Moscow.

Despite all this, the winner quickly became clear - the current president, Maia Sandu, who is pro-European, won about 55% support. Her opponent, Alexander Stoyanoglo, a former chief prosecutor who was released on corruption charges and is backed by pro-Russian parties, won only 45 percent of the vote.

Massive attempts to interfere in the election by Russia have failed. For now, Moldova has secured its pro-European perspective. However, without Moscow's hybrid attacks, the result would probably have been much more decisive in Sandu's favor. The EU membership referendum held two weeks ago ended with a narrow lead of 10,000 votes in favor of pro-European voters. The authorities assume that a huge number of votes were bought then.

"They saved our country"

A little before midnight, Maya Sandu met with her supporters at the party headquarters, and then gave a press conference to the media. Sandu said that the Moldovans delivered a “lesson in democracy”, with which they saved the country and decisively defeated those who wanted to “bring us to our knees”.

In her speech, the president stated several times that she also listens to critical voices. She self-critically noted that the speed of constitutional reforms has not been sufficient so far. "We must implement the reforms faster and strengthen our democracy," Sandu urged. At one point, she briefly switched from official Romanian to Russian and declared that all citizens of the country, regardless of ethnicity and language, want to "live in peace, prosperity, democracy and a united society”. Then Maya Sandu repeated her serious accusations from the first round of the elections and from the election campaign. There was an "unprecedented attack" against the country, an attempt to "buy votes with dirty money" and "interference by outside forces and criminal groups".

Changes in government

The president and the government are now under enormous pressure because there are high expectations in the country. Maya Sandu has a reputation as an absolute opponent of corruption, who is determined to carry out important reforms for the country. As president, however, she doesn't have much power. Parliamentary elections will be held next year. If Sandu-backed Prime Minister Dorin Recan doesn't implement judicial and anti-corruption reforms by then, Moldova's pro-EU course could be in jeopardy again.

Sandu's opponent, Alexander Stoyanoglo, made a brief statement on election night, when he was still leading by a narrow margin, but appeared to not expect a clear winner to emerge. He called for “an end to hatred and division”, and around midnight the headquarters of the party of pro-Russian socialists who supported Stoyanoglo was already deserted.

Geopolitical elections

According to commentators on Moldovan public television, these elections were “geopolitical”, in which Moldova had to choose between Russia and the prospect of becoming part of a democratic Europe. Most observers were adamant that there had been unprecedented criminal activity prior to the election.

"Russia and the criminal group of Ilan Shor invested an amount equal to one percent of our gross domestic product to influence these elections, there was enormous pressure and a huge amount of disinformation and manipulation," said Valeriu Pasha, for example, the chairman of the civil organization “Watchdog”. However, now there are still "many lessons that our government and our country must learn", said Pasha, "in the judicial system, in the fight against corruption, but also in working with society and especially with pensioners, many of whom are particularly susceptible to misinformation".

Lessons for European partners

Moldovan-Israeli businessman Ilan Shor is one of the main people responsible for the “theft of billions of dollars” from Moldovan banks between 2012 and 2014. He avoided a 15-year prison sentence by emigrating first to Israel and then to Russia. He is suspected of having, together with the Russian secret services, organized electoral fraud and vote-buying during the current elections. Up to 300,000 votes are believed to have been bought.

Publicist Nicolae Negru said that Russia has turned the Republic of Moldova into a testing ground for such manipulations, but also asked why a fraud of this magnitude was not prevented by the authorities, even though it had been known for a long time. For his part, political scientist Julian Groza from the Moldovan Institute for European Policy and Reforms said that the scale of the manipulation and the "sophisticated tools used by Russia" should not be underestimated. "Russia will not stop either in our country or elsewhere in Europe," Groza said. "Current practices and experience from our country should give food for thought to all our European partners.