„The tales” that The Russian Federation has the resources to win the war against Ukraine do not correspond to reality, and Moscow will have serious economic difficulties to end the war. This was written by the American magazine Foreign Policy, citing data from OSINT analysts, quoted by Focus.
According to the editors, Russia's military economy is headed for a dead end. “Signs that official figures are masking serious economic hardship caused by both the war and sanctions are becoming increasingly clear. The Kremlin will not be able to ramp up production fast enough to replace weapons at the rate they are being lost on the battlefield. Already, about half of all artillery shells used by Russia in Ukraine come from North Korean stockpiles. At some point in the second half of 2025, Russia will face severe shortages in several categories of weapons,” writes Foreign Policy.
It is not known exactly when Russia will run out of stocks of each type of weapon, but the publication assures that the Kremlin will have few options to avoid it.
Furthermore, Russia will not only be unable to wage war for a long time, but will not be able to “make peace easily”.
„Huge military spending, which is unsustainable in the long term, artificially stimulates employment and growth. Almost all new jobs are military-related and do not bring much benefit to the civilian economy, most sectors of which are experiencing great difficulty in finding labor… The scale of the post-war Russian recession will be even worse, as the Russian civilian economy, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, has shrunk due to the war”, the publication noted.
Foreign Policy summarizes that Russian leaders will face a serious choice. “Russia will not be able to continue waging the current war after the end of 2025, when it will begin to exhaust its key weapons systems. Achieving a peace agreement, however, poses a different set of problems.“
The Kremlin will have to choose between three unpleasant options:
1. Cut the military and defense industry, which would cause a recession that could threaten the regime.
2. To maintain high levels of defense spending and a bloated peacetime military that will suffocate the Russian economy.
3. To use the army to obtain the necessary economic resources to sustain it through new conquests.
„The cessation of full-scale hostilities in Ukraine will not end the West's problems with Russia. Russia's huge military sector encourages the Kremlin to use its military power to extract dividends from neighboring countries. The alternative (demobilization and recession or endless funding of the bloated military and defense industry) poses an existential threat to the Putin regime. And regardless of how Moscow ends its current war, the very economic realities of the country will create new forms of uncertainty for Europe. Forward-thinking policymakers should focus on mitigating these future threats”, Foreign Policy states.