The re-election of Donald Trump as US president has sparked heated and open debates in Iran on whether to negotiate with the next American government or whether it is better to take a more hostile position, even to proceed with the creation of nuclear weapons, writes the "Washington Post", BTA reported.
Some experts expect Trump to revive his policy of "maximum pressure" against Iran in order to deprive the Islamic Republic of the opportunity to finance and support its proxies in the Middle East, as well as to develop its nuclear program, notes the "Financial Times". Trump's diplomatic team is likely to seek to strengthen sanctions against the Islamic Republic and tighten restrictions on Iran's vital oil exports, the publication adds.
At the same time, Trump has given some signals in a different direction. For example, last month he said in an interview with PBD Podcast: "I would like to see Iran very successful", recalls the "Washington Post". "The only detail is that they will not be able to have a nuclear weapon", Trump emphasized.
During his election campaign, the Republican expressed a desire to make a deal with Iran, adds the "Financial Times". "We have to make a deal, because otherwise the consequences will be unimaginable. We have to make a deal," he said in September. According to some analysts, Trump will use the tactic of maximum pressure precisely in an attempt to force Iran to negotiate with the United States, the publication points out.
A certain readiness for negotiations was also expressed this week by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. "Whether we like it or not, we will have to interact with the United States in the regional and international arena, so it is better to guide these relations ourselves," Pezeshkian said, quoted by Reuters. "We must treat our friends generously and our enemies leniently," he added.
For Iranian leaders, Trump's unpredictable policy, as well as his desire to maintain his reputation as a master of deals, are signals that there may still be a chance for diplomacy, commented the "Washington Post". "Attention in Iran is heightened right now", Diako Hosseini of the Tehran-based think tank Center for Strategic Studies told the American publication. At this stage, the leadership of the Islamic Republic does not want to have "hostile relations with Trump", nor does it want to "immediately welcome" his return to the White House, Hosseini pointed out. "On the Iranian side, the doors for communication and negotiations with the Trump administration are not completely closed", the political expert added.
However, the main obstacle to the negotiations is the Islamic Republic's anger over the assassination of the most revered Iranian general - Qassem Soleimani, commented Iranian journalist Mohammad Azari in an article published on the website of the American think tank "Stimson Center".
Soleimani was eliminated in early 2020. in Baghdad by a drone strike on the orders of Trump, who was in office at the time. The Iranian general was killed two years after Trump pulled the United States out of the 2015 nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, as the document is officially called) and reimposed tough sanctions on the Islamic Republic.
Iran managed to survive the US sanctions campaign until Joe Biden took office in 2021, after which the Democratic president's administration made no significant changes to the restrictions against the Islamic Republic. However, some critics in the United States accuse Biden of loosening the restrictive regime. Under Biden, Iranian oil exports, mostly to China, have reached levels high enough to keep the Islamic Republic's elite afloat, Iranian journalist Mohammad Azari also wrote.
Iran's crude oil exports have more than tripled in the past four years, from a low of 400,000 barrels per day in 2020 to more than 1.5 million barrels per day in 2024, with almost all of the shipments going to China, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration, the Financial Times added.
In 2020, hardline members of the Iranian parliament ratified a bill titled "Strategic Action Plan to Lift Sanctions and Protect Iran's National Interests," Azari recalled. The bill was intended to undermine efforts by then-President Hassan Rouhani to revive or renegotiate the 2015 nuclear deal. This is only the first time that the hardline faction in Iran has taken a foreign policy initiative to undermine its domestic political rivals in the face of more moderate pragmatists, the Iranian journalist commented.
The tension between radicals and pragmatists dates back to the Islamic Revolution and the subsequent hostage-taking at the US embassy in the United States in 1979. Then a group of students, supported by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, stormed the US mission building and held 52 diplomats hostage for 444 days. This crisis, which led to the resignation of the first prime minister of the Islamic Republic - Mehdi Bazargan, opened a new page in Iranian foreign policy and has an impact to this day, Azari also writes. In Iran's complex political system, presidents are elected every four years, but the final word in making decisions in the field of foreign affairs and security has the country's supreme leader, Azari points out.
Iran's new government, headed by reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian, has expressed a desire to renew interaction with the West and resolve issues surrounding the country's nuclear program, adds "Financial Times". Pezeshkian hopes that terms for easing Western sanctions can be agreed upon, which will help Iran get out of its difficult economic situation, the publication adds.
This week, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Grossi arrived in Iran and visited two nuclear sites, Reuters reported. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Grossi that Tehran wants to resolve disputes over Iran's nuclear program, but stressed that it will not succumb to pressure. "The ball is in the EU/E3 court", Araghchi wrote on the social network "Ex" after his meeting with the IAEA chief. By E3, he meant France, Britain and Germany, which, along with the United States, represent the West in negotiations for a nuclear deal. "We are ready to negotiate based on our national interest and our inalienable rights, but we are not ready to negotiate under pressure and intimidation," Araghchi stressed.
"The big question is whether Ayatollah Khamenei would be willing to make a nuclear and regional deal with the man who killed Qassem Soleimani," Karim Sajjadpour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told the "Financial Times". "It is difficult to imagine a nuclear or regional deal that would be acceptable to both the Israeli prime minister and the supreme leader of Iran," he concluded.