Donald Trump's advisers have publicly and privately floated proposals to end the war in Ukraine that would cede large swaths of the country to Russia for the foreseeable future, according to an analysis by "Reuters" of their statements and interviews with several people close to the US president-elect.
The proposals by three key advisers, including Trump's future Russia-Ukraine envoy, retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, share some elements, including abandoning the idea of Ukraine's NATO membership.
Trump's advisers would try to force Moscow and Kiev into "Carrot and Stick" style negotiations. , including suspending military aid to Kiev unless Zelensky agrees to negotiate, or increasing aid if Russian President Vladimir Putin refuses.
Trump has repeatedly promised on the campaign trail to end the nearly three-year conflict within 24 hours of taking office on January 20, if not sooner, but has yet to say how.
Analysts and former national security officials express serious doubts that Trump can follow through on such a promise because of the complexity of the conflict.
Taken together, however, the statements from his advisers suggest the potential contours of Trump's peace plan.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, facing a military shortage and mounting territorial losses, has indicated he may be open to talks.
Although he still intends to join NATO, he said this week that Ukraine must find diplomatic solutions to return some of the occupied territories.
But Trump may find that Putin is reluctant to engage, analysts and former US officials said, because he is keeping the Ukrainians on the back burner and has more to gain by continuing to grab land.
"Putin is in no rush," said Eugene Rumer, a former top US intelligence analyst for Russia who now works at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank.
The Russian leader, he said, has shown no willingness to budge on his terms for a truce and talks, including Ukraine abandoning its NATO bid and handing over four provinces that Putin claims are part of Russia but do not control completely, a request rejected by Kiev.
Putin, according to Rumer, will likely wait to take more positions and see what concessions, if any, Trump will offer to lure him to the negotiating table.
"Reuters" reported in May that Putin was ready to end the war with an agreed ceasefire that recognized the current front lines but was ready to fight if Kiev and the West did not respond.
Russia now controls all of Crimea after unilaterally seizing it from Ukraine in 2014. and has since captured around 80% of Donbass - which consists of Donetsk and Luhansk - as well as more than 70% of Zaporozhye and Kherson and small parts of Nikolaev and Kharkiv Oblasts.
As of last week, Trump had not yet convened a central task force to draft a peace plan, according to four advisers who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe private discussions. Rather, several advisers have pitched ideas to each other in public forums and — in some cases — to Trump, they said.
Ultimately, a peace deal is likely to depend on direct personal engagement between Trump, Putin and Zelensky, advisers said.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that "it is not possible to comment on individual statements without having an idea of the plan as a whole.
Trump spokeswoman Carolyn Leavitt noted that Trump said he would "do what it takes to restore peace and restore American strength and deterrence on the world stage.
A former Trump national security official involved in the transition said there were three main proposals: Kellogg's scheme, one by Vice President-elect JD Vance and another proposed by Richard Grenell, Trump's former acting chief of intelligence.
Kellogg's plan, co-authored by former National Security Council official Fred Fleitz and presented to Trump earlier this year, calls for a freeze on the current battle lines.
Trump will deliver more US weapons to Kiev only if it agrees to peace talks. At the same time, he will warn Moscow that he will increase US aid to Ukraine if Russia rejects the talks. Ukraine's membership in NATO will be postponed.
Ukraine would also be offered U.S. security guarantees, which could include increased arms supplies after a deal is struck, according to the proposal.
In a June interview with Times Radio, Sebastian Gorka, one of Trump's future deputy national security advisers, said Trump told him he would force Putin to start negotiations by threatening unprecedented arms deliveries to Ukraine, if Putin refuses.
Vance, who as a US senator opposed aid to Ukraine, presented a separate idea in September.
He told US podcaster Sean Ryan that the deal would likely include a demilitarized zone on existing front lines that would be "heavily fortified" to prevent further Russian incursions. His proposal would deny Kyiv membership in NATO.
Grenell, Trump's former ambassador to Germany, advocated the creation of "autonomous zones" in eastern Ukraine during a Bloomberg roundtable in July, but did not elaborate. He also suggested that Ukraine's NATO membership was not in America's interest.
According to a senior Trump foreign policy adviser, Grenell was one of the few people at the September meeting in New York between Trump and Zelensky.
Elements of the proposals are likely to be pushed back by Zelensky, who has made the NATO invitation part of his own "Victory Plan", as well as by European allies and some US lawmakers, analysts and former national security officials say.
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Last week, Ukraine's foreign minister sent a letter to his NATO counterparts urging them to issue an invitation for membership at Tuesday's meeting of foreign ministers.
Some European allies have expressed willingness to increase aid to Ukraine, and US President Joe Biden continues to send weapons. This may cost Trump some leverage to bring Kiev to the table.
Kellogg's plan, which hinges on increasing aid to Ukraine if Putin refuses to negotiate, could face a backlash in Congress, where some of Trump's closest allies oppose additional military aid to the Eastern European nation .
"I don't think anyone has any realistic plan to end this," said Rumer, a former US intelligence officer.