Donald Trump, a candidate for president of the United States, announced that he could end the war in Ukraine in a day. This ambitious statement, made in May 2023, became a central element of his election campaign. However, the American publication Foreign Affairs notes that the task ahead of him will be extremely difficult, especially given the complex political situation between Kiev and Moscow, reports Focus.
The reality of war
Currently, conditions are not favorable for peace. Neither Ukraine nor Russia has achieved a decisive advantage, but both sides are still reluctant to conduct direct negotiations. Russian President Vladimir Putin sees a potential reduction in US military aid as a potential step towards an offensive.
Lessons from Afghanistan
The US agreement with the Taliban during Trump's first term could serve as a warning. The Taliban used the time to consolidate their position, which led to more serious conflicts. A similar scenario with Russia could have disastrous consequences if there are no sustainable guarantees for Ukraine.
NATO as part of the solution
One possible solution is to grant Ukraine NATO membership as a condition for peace. This could persuade Kiev to make some concessions to Russia in exchange for security. However, Ukraine insists on clear guarantees, as it has little confidence in Moscow's international commitments.
Ukraine's invitation to NATO could become part of the agreement, providing it with protection from future aggression and stabilizing the situation in the region.
Challenges for Trump
Mediating the Ukrainian conflict would be a chance for Trump to demonstrate his diplomatic skills. It is possible that this would increase his international prestige and even secure him the Nobel Peace Prize. At the same time, he is expected to avoid an escalation of the conflict that could harm American interests.
The publication summarizes that while reaching an agreement between Putin and Zelensky is difficult, endless war or Ukraine's capitulation would be much worse scenarios.