John Bolton is an American politician and diplomat who has served in several presidential administrations. In 2018-2019, he was the national security adviser in Donald Trump's first term. Ines Paul spoke with him.
DW: It's hard to prioritize with so many crises right now, but I would like to start with Ukraine. President Zelensky said that he does not want to freeze the conflict right now to end the war and does not want to give up territories. This is something that Donald Trump would do, however. How do you think the next few months will develop?
John Bolton: I am very worried about the future of Ukraine. Judging by what Trump said during his campaign and after the election, but also by his general attitude towards Ukraine and Russia. Trump has already admitted that he will not be able to just get Zelensky and Putin in a room and resolve the conflict in 24 hours. It is interesting - how these things happen during campaigns, and then you accept the reality that he was probably aware of earlier.
I think what motivates Trump most right now is that he wants to put this war behind him. He thinks this is Biden's war. During the campaign, he even claimed that if he had been president, it would not have started. This, of course, is not a provable claim. But he certainly wants the war to end, and he hardly cares exactly under what conditions. I think this is bad news for Ukraine.
DW: What do you expect Trump to do regarding Ukraine in his first few weeks in the White House?
John Bolton: I think he will have many different priorities, but the good news for Ukraine is that he will probably focus first on deporting illegal immigrants to the United States, as well as other more domestic political things. However, Trump has already appointed a special envoy for the negotiations on Ukraine, which he expects to start relatively soon. I don't think he has had a conversation with Vladimir Putin yet. At some point, there will be such a conversation, and I think Trump will say something like "Vladimir, you need to come to the negotiating table". Putin will dodge and complain, but in the end he will agree: "Donald, I will do it for you!".
Of course, sitting down at the negotiating table is in Putin's interest if it means that the Russian-Ukrainian border will remain as it is now. I think Putin knows how to play with Trump, knows how to flatter him. If they have a conversation before Trump takes office, the negotiations could start very quickly. I worry that the US may back down from the course they have been following so far. It is not effective for many reasons, but if we demonstrate weaker support for Ukraine, Europe will quickly follow us. And that is very bad for Kiev.
DW: It is also about guarantees for the security of Ukraine. What do you expect Donald Trump to promise?
John Bolton: I am afraid that he will stand behind almost nothing. And to be honest, Ukraine had security guarantees from the US, UK and Russia, as outlined in the Budapest Memorandum, and that didn't do anything. So I'm not sure whether future security guarantees will be more effective for Ukraine. The only real solution is NATO membership, but I don't think that's on the table. The serious question regarding NATO membership is whether Trump will keep us in the Alliance or pull us out.
DW: And do you think he will try to pull you out of NATO?
John Bolton: He doesn't understand how the Alliance is useful to the US. He imagines NATO like this: we defend Europe and we get nothing in return, Europe has to pay, so why are we in the Alliance at all? That's what he thinks. And so it's not unbelievable that he's asking why he shouldn't leave NATO. This worries me a lot.
Author: Ines Paul