"A new era in relations between Serbia and the US!" - that was the headline of a Serbian tabloid after Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential elections in November. However, the opinion is also shared by other Serbian media. And in his first phone call with the newly elected American president, his Serbian counterpart Aleksandar Vučić assured him that support for his re-election was greater in Serbia than anywhere else in Europe.
"I am convinced that we will make - he will make - America great again, and that together we will make Serbia a country that will cooperate very well with the United States," Vučić also said at the time.
Just ten days before Donald Trump was inaugurated, US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Verma visited Serbia. According to information published on the US State Department website, Verma stressed the importance of relations between the two countries for ensuring peace and stability, including in Ukraine. The growing economic partnership between the US and Serbia, including in the fields of energy, telecommunications and technology, was also discussed, as was US support for Serbia's progress on its path to EU membership.
Serbia: "A reliable partner and ally"
"When the US establishes a strategic dialogue with a country, it means that they see it as a reliable partner and ally", says Vuk Velebit of the "Pupin" initiative, a Belgrade-based non-governmental organization that works to strengthen relations between Serbia and the US.
"Serbia has strategic agreements with China and Russia and, of course, a special relationship with the EU. The fourth pillar of foreign policy is the US", says Velebit. According to him, for Serbia now this strategic dialogue will mean that there will be a balance in international relations - not only with China and Russia, but also with the US.
Closer cooperation despite sanctions?
According to reports in the Serbian media, strategic cooperation with the US will be focused primarily on areas such as the economy, energy and security. However, it comes at a time when Washington has imposed sanctions on the Serbian oil company NIS, whose majority shareholder is the state-owned Russian company "Gazprom Neft". These sanctions are part of a wider set of US measures aimed at Russia's energy sector.
"They want all Russians from us to leave NIS – not to reduce the number of Russians, but to remove them from the company," Vucic said on Friday, adding that the deadline for reaching an agreement with the Russians is March 12.
For Vuk Velebit, this is a chance for Serbia to insist on a change in the ownership of NIS. "I think Serbia wants to correct the harmful deal for NIS, which was sold below the market price, which made us completely dependent on Russia in the energy sector," he told DW.
"It is not good to be dependent on a single partner, and for Serbia it is crucial not only to regain control of the sector, but also to diversify its energy portfolio. The US and American companies could be a reliable partner in this direction," Velebit also emphasized.
Belgrade has high hopes for Trump
The euphoria surrounding Trump's return to the White House is most strongly expressed in Serbian pro-government tabloids, which predict a grand dismantling of globalism. President Vučić himself shares this opinion and is convinced that Donald Trump, whom he calls "the leader of our era", will achieve it.
"Donald Trump is preparing 200 acts that he will sign and issue on the first or second day of his presidency. When it does, the entire system of the false liberal world will collapse," Vucic said.
A breakthrough on the Kosovo issue?
In addition to the prospect of a "fight against globalists" that pleases Serbian officials, the return of Republicans to the US raises hopes in Belgrade that the US may become more favorable to Serbia in the process of dialogue with Kosovo.
Vuk Vuksanovic, a researcher at the Belgrade-based Center for Security Policy, believes that these hopes are somewhat realistic: "The Serbian government certainly does not believe that the Trump administration will change its position on Kosovo, but it believes that on issues such as the economic situation of Serbs in northern Kosovo and the protection of monuments and religious shrines in Kosovo, it can get a better deal with the Trump administration," he says. he.
Are the hopes justified?
Analysts seem to think these high expectations are realistic - especially since relations between the US and Serbia have been steadily improving for years under both Trump and Biden.
"The Belgrade government has made three major investments in its partnership with the future Trump administration: the relationship with Richard Grenell, the agreement with Kushner, and the supply of ammunition to Israel in order to regain access to the Israeli lobby, and through it, access to the White House," says Vuksanovic.
Richard Grenell was the special envoy for the Serbia-Kosovo negotiations and a frequent guest in Belgrade between 2019 and 2021 during Trump's first term. In 2023, President Vučić awarded him the Order of the "Serbian Flag" first degree for his significant contribution to strengthening peaceful cooperation and friendly relations between Serbia and the United States.
Donald Trump Jr. visited Belgrade in September 2023 and met with a group of Serbian businessmen to discuss potential investments, and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner also has business ventures in Belgrade.
Serbia has signed a contract with Kushner's company to restore the former headquarters of the Yugoslav Ministry of Defense in Belgrade, parts of which were destroyed during the NATO bombing of the country in 1999.
Two high-rise apartment buildings and hotels are planned to be built on the site. Although the contract itself has not been made public, in March the "New York Times" reported that the investment is worth $500 million. dollars and that the Serbian state is expected to receive 22% of the profit.
Under Trump, will the emphasis be on Eastern Europe?
Velebit is convinced that the Trump administration will focus more on Eastern than Western Europe. "It will be important for them to control Russian influence, but also to limit Turkish influence. That is why relations with Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Serbia will be crucial", concludes Velebit.
But does this mean that Serbia could change its orientation from East to West? "Western countries have always had the upper hand in policy towards Serbia and the Balkans, not Russia and China", says Vuksanovic. "I think that of all Serbia's Western partners, the United States will be the most important for Belgrade while Trump is in power. Moreover, the main tension in relations with Trump and his administration will come not from Kosovo or Russia, but from relations with China," he is convinced.
Author: Sanja Kljajic