French Prime Minister François Bayrou appeared to try to secure at least a few more months of existence for his fragile minority government by promising negotiations on the issue of increasing the retirement age from 62 to 64, reports the publication “Politico“.
The plan, which he launched on Tuesday when presenting his management program to deputies of the National Assembly, provides for a new three-month extension for trade unions and employers' organizations to gather in a “conclave“, as the prime minister put it, and try to reach an agreement on the controversial reform.
Raising the retirement age has long been one of the most controversial issues in French politics, notes “Politico“. France has a generous social system, but its skyrocketing national debt has forced it to look for ways to save money.
The challenge for Bayrou is to secure the favor of the highly fragmented parliament that produced snap elections in the summer, and thus avoid the fate of the cabinet of his predecessor Michel Barnier, which did not survive even 100 days. Bayrou is an ally of President Emmanuel Macron, who is also in a difficult political situation, and the prime minister's task is made even more difficult given the fact that the opposition is apparently preparing to attack him with a series of no-confidence votes.
Bayrou explained that if the negotiations on the retirement age do not yield results, it will simply not be changed, which, however, will confront any future government with the need to make difficult and unpopular economic reforms. If, on the other hand, there is a result, the agreed changes will be enshrined in the new social security budget or in a new bill.
“I am convinced that we can find a new path to reforms, without totems and taboos, even on the issue of retirement“, the prime minister said in his 90-minute speech. But the approach he is proposing will be “new and in a sense radical“.
The point of this gambit by Bayrou is to attract the socialists and make them not support the overthrow of the government in the face of the looming series of no-confidence motions. For now, at least, the plan seems to be working.
The Socialist Party (SP) leadership, albeit reluctantly, announced that it would give the negotiations a chance.
“I agreed to negotiations, but I hasten to emphasize that this means that everyone will have to make concessions“, party chairman Olivier Faure told French television channel TF 1. “The prime minister has opened the door. That alone is a victory.“
Faure added that his deputies might still vote against Bayrou if they do not receive assurances that the 2023 pension reform law will be repealed even if the negotiations fail.
The far-left “France Insubordinate“ filed a motion of no confidence against the cabinet literally hours after Bayrou's speech, with debates on the motion and its vote expected to take place today. The vote is not expected to pass, as the far-right National Rally party has said it will not topple the government just yet, as it wants to give it a chance to govern.
ANOTHER VOTE OF NO CONFIDENCE
The real challenge for Bayrou is yet to come, when France's draft budget for this year returns to parliament for a new hearing at the end of the month, as discussions and disputes over the state budget could lead to a new motion of no confidence against the government. Then, most likely, the far right will also vote for the fall of the cabinet, so the prime minister will have to secure a sufficient number of left-wing MPs on his side to survive in power, without at the same time pushing away the conservatives (the moderate right – ed. note) and the supporters of the pension reform from the so-called Macronist bloc.
On Sunday, the chairman of the conservative parliamentary group, Laurent Vauquier, fired a “warning shot” with a threat to withdraw his party's support if Bayrou makes excessive concessions to the left.
In his speech, Bayrou insisted that the pension reform is needed to solve the problem of the huge budget deficit for this year, which is set to reach 6.2% of gross domestic product (with 3% allowed under the EU Maastricht criteria – ed. note). A veteran centrist who has endured many battles in his career, Bayrou accused lawmakers and leaders across the political spectrum of "dancing a fatal tango (with debt) that has brought France to the brink of ruin." Both the center-left and conservatives seem content for now, Politico notes.
But just as Barnier was ousted despite building bridges to the far right, leaving France still without a budget, the same could happen to Bayrou if he loses the favor of the moderate left with measures to reduce the budget deficit that are difficult for it to swallow.
A possible collapse of his cabinet could have a catastrophic effect on French finances and the stability of the eurozone, commented „Politico“.
ANTI-RECORD IN FRENCH POLITICS
Bayrou became the fourth consecutive prime minister of France for 2024, a record since the founding of the Fifth Republic, notes „Monde“. In January last year, Macron replaced Elisabeth Borne, France's first female prime minister, with Gabriel Attal, who became the youngest person to hold the position.
In June, the president dissolved the National Assembly after he suffered a heavy defeat in the June 9 European elections to the far right and called early parliamentary elections, which failed to secure a majority for any political bloc. After a seven-week wait, Macron decided to appoint Barnier, a representative of the right-wing "Republicans" party, as prime minister in order to open the wings of his coalition to the right. But even with this move, Barnier ultimately also remained a prime minister without a majority, which effectively sealed his fate and after only about 100 days in power he was ousted, becoming the shortest-serving prime minister in French history.
Finding a new prime minister for Macron has become an even more complicated task given the complex political situation in the National Assembly: securing a governing majority is difficult, as the parliament is divided into three almost equal opposing political blocs - a left-wing coalition, a center-conservative bloc and the far right - which so far do not seem to be able to find a way to each other.