Experts are warning that Russian President Vladimir Putin, who nearly 3 years ago launched a full-scale war against Ukraine, is currently secretly conquering another country - Belarus, News.de reported.
A report by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) says that the close relationship that Russia and Belarus have maintained for years is now a greater cause for concern than ever. Experts believe that Vladimir Putin has already secretly conquered Belarus and expanded his Russian empire.
Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko have had a close friendship for years. The Belarusian dictator is one of Russia's closest allies, even providing the territory of Belarus to the Russian army for the invasion in February 2022.
Putin has long used the neighboring country to move the Russian army west. The ISW document speaks of a “quiet conquest of Belarus“, which in turn could have drastic consequences for NATO in the near future.
According to the ISW, the secret takeover of Belarus began in 2020, when Belarus was rocked by a political crisis. Vladimir Putin took the opportunity to establish himself militarily in the neighboring country. With the help of Russian fighters and propagandists, Alexander Lukashenko was able to suppress the protests. Russian troops were permanently stationed on Belarusian territory. ISW analysts issue a clear warning in their paper: “Politicians must start planning for a future in which Belarus will not be just an occupied country, but a de facto extension of Russia.“
Putin has three main goals: military, economic and political takeover of Belarus. The Russian president has almost completely succeeded militarily. Putin has even moved nuclear weapons to Belarus. Economically, Russia seeks to create common markets, in which the two countries would have a common system. On the political level, a common court and parliament would be possible.
The military “takeover“ of Belarus envisages the establishment of a permanent Russian base on Belarusian territory, administrative control over the Belarusian armed forces, the establishment of interoperability between Russian and Belarusian tactical units under Russian command, as well as the recruitment of Belarusian citizens into the Russian army.
Political integration is expressed in Putin's desire for a union state with a single currency, legislative and judicial power. ISW points out that de facto this is a matter of annexation of Belarus and these efforts by Putin are not new. As in the case of Ukraine, he has been planning his actions for decades, with which he aims to create something like a modern Soviet Union under the control of the Kremlin. Putin himself has admitted that he considers the collapse of the USSR to be one of his greatest mistakes.
Russia’s effort to de facto annex Belarus, while incomplete, is well underway and has already reached stages that pose a security threat to the United States, NATO, and Ukraine, and an existential threat to Belarus’ continued existence as a sovereign state. Russia’s existing set of military, political, and economic integration gains in Belarus as of 2020 already pose threats to the West that policymakers must take into account, ISW analysts said in their report.
Belarus is not just an ally of Russia—the Kremlin is transforming Belarus into a strategic factor in Russia’s ability to project power globally. Putin is at the end of a decades-long strategic effort to de facto annex Belarus – efforts that will permanently increase Russia's military and economic capacity to pursue its revanchist geopolitical goals against the United States and NATO.