Poland is the country that provided enormous support to Ukraine after the Russian aggression, while investing heavily in its defense and deterrence capabilities. It has also become the center of regional initiatives against Russia's new expansionism, writes “Neue Zürcher Zeitung" (NCZ).
The Swiss publication notes that Germany also had the potential to play this role, but Chancellor Olaf Scholz opposed almost every new wave of arms supplies to Ukraine and provided military assistance to the attacked country only under pressure from his coalition partners, public opinion, his European allies and the United States. Scholz also did nothing to rearm the Bundeswehr so that it could finally fulfill its national and international tasks in the field of defense and deterrence. Germany could have made an effort and become what Poland is today: a bulwark against Russian aggression and Russian offensive, the NCC points out.
Because Russia is a threat
Poland also has its own domestic political difficulties. There were bilateral contradictions with Ukraine, and the political climate in the country is poisonous. The current constellation of a centrist government with conservative President Andrzej Duda, who is in office until the elections in May, is difficult. The directly elected president of Poland has broad powers in foreign policy, which has led to a number of disputes at home. However, the result is ultimately positive, the Swiss publication notes.
There is a broad public and political consensus in Poland that Russia poses a threat to the country's existence and freedom, and that Poland itself must be strong in order not to become a victim of Russia, we read further in the NCC publication. This is the reason for the determination with which comprehensive support is being shown to Ukraine. There is no doubt that the country is in a high-risk zone. The political consensus is that if Russia succeeds in Ukraine, it will continue in the same way elsewhere, and this elsewhere could strongly affect Poland - if a NATO country is attacked, for example, in the neighboring Baltics. Therefore, the successful self-assertion of Ukraine is important for Poland: if it becomes a fact, the danger to its own territory will also decrease. And vice versa.
Poland is arming itself intensively - this year the budget for this purpose will exceed five percent of GDP, the NCC recalls. After the armies of the United States and Turkey, Poland is the third largest in NATO. In addition, Poland has made it its mission to be a pioneer in collective defense efforts within the Alliance.
Recognition of Poland's important role
On the one hand, Poland continues to rely on NATO and the United States, but on the other hand, it wants to find out to what extent the EU can be used to guarantee the security of Central and Eastern Europe from Russia, the Swiss publication further writes. Therefore, the Polish presidency of the European Council in the first half of 2025 is also being used to stimulate the defense of Europe as a whole. Poland is also trying to encourage its neighbors to take joint action, but this has not been possible: Polish Prime Minister Tusk sees his Hungarian counterpart Viktor Orbán as a dangerous adversary who opens the door wide to Russian influence. For this reason, Warsaw is focusing on its northern neighbors: the Baltics and the Scandinavians.
The ideal option would be for cooperation to include Britain and Germany, but the British continue to be concerned primarily with themselves, and with regard to Germany, hopes are rather connected with the likely next Chancellor Friedrich Merz. He has already announced not only the supply of Taurus missiles to Ukraine, but also said that on his first day as Chancellor he would visit Poland and France. This act would have symbolic significance and would be a recognition of the important role that Poland plays in Europe today, writes the NCC and emphasizes that in this way Germany's partnership with Poland would rise to the level of partnership with France. According to the Swiss publication, the potential for close cooperation between Poland and Germany is a fact. The two countries have intensive economic ties, and in the security sphere, Poland is a bulwark for Germany against Russia.
Germany and Poland - the center of a new and strong Europe?
Meanwhile, Poland is large and strong enough to play an important role in Europe, but it is not yet at the level of the three big ones on the continent - Germany, France and Britain. Poland cannot take a leading position, but it can do a lot: propose an agenda, strengthen and advance itself, unite its small and large neighbors. Poland has been doing this increasingly successfully for several years now, the NCC points out.
If Berlin and Warsaw join forces, they can become a powerful and influential center of a new, self-defending Europe that will deter Moscow while relieving Washington. To achieve this, Poland and Germany will have to overcome their fixation on secondary issues and recognize their common strategic interests. The chances of this happening are quite good, the NCC concludes.