Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will probably meet by the end of February, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov announced. And it is already clear that this meeting will cement the rejection of a doctrine that has defined American foreign policy for decades - the role of the US as a defender of a global order based on established rules.
“People are no longer sure whether the US supports its allies and friends”, says Christine Bertsina of the American organization “German Marshall Fund”. “Russia has repeatedly emphasized that it considers the US an enemy. Moscow describes the war against Ukraine as a war against NATO, but the Trump administration seems to have no problem with this choice of words. In fact, Washington is even offering Russians “historically unprecedented economic opportunities.”
“Deeply offensive” to Europeans
The US course towards Russia has changed radically in just a few days. On February 12, Trump spoke by phone with Putin, outlining the US strategy so far to isolate the Kremlin, undertaken since the start of Russia’s aggressive war against Ukraine. The conversation was preceded by a summit between representatives of Moscow and Washington in Saudi Arabia - the first such since the start of the full-scale invasion. These were historic talks - between the Russian aggressor and Ukraine's greatest defender - the United States, at which there were no representatives of Europe and Kiev.
According to Bertsyna, the choice of Saudi Arabia as the host of this meeting is also problematic - the talks on European security were held outside the European continent. “For many Europeans, this is probably deeply offensive, because it shows disrespect. It's one thing to be in the same room and argue about something. It's another to not be allowed in the room at all”, she says.
Trump blames Zelensky for the war in Ukraine
After this meeting, sparks flew several times between Donald Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky. The American president blamed Zelensky for the war and called him “a dictator who was not elected”. According to Ukraine's constitution, however, elections cannot be held while the country is in martial law. Zelensky, for his part, noted that Trump's statements increasingly overlap with the Kremlin's narratives and accused the American leader of living in Russia's "disinformation bubble."
"There is no reason to believe that there will be room for other heads of state at the Trump-Putin summit," said Pavel Baev of the Center for the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution. This is another sign of the deterioration of relations between the United States, Ukraine and Europe.
„Trump has always been consistent“
The sudden turn in American foreign policy shook US allies, but was not surprising, said Max Bergman of the Stewart Center for Strategic and International Studies. According to him, there are many theories as to why the US has suddenly turned towards Russia - from the ties between Trump's companies and Russian oligarchs to Russia's interference in the 2016 US elections and Trump's preference for authoritarian leaders like Putin," Bergman explains. According to the expert, Trump is absolutely consistent in his affinity for Russia and neglect of NATO.
According to Pavel Baev of the Brookings Institution, the current rapprochement between Russia and the US may not bring the results that Trump hopes for. "For the American president, this war makes no sense and must end as soon as possible. For Moscow, however, this is an existential conflict that affects a variety of issues, even its very existence," Baev explains. “This difference in judgment is very obvious, and I see no willingness on the Russian side to change its strategic course regarding the war in Ukraine”.
Undermining US dominance
A rapprochement between the US and Russia could really hurt Washington. “I don't understand why we want to strengthen our biggest enemy”, commented Max Bergmann. “The US will not get any significant economic advantages from rapprochement with Russia. There may be some benefits in terms of rare metals, but for gas and oil they are our competitors”, he said.
Bergman is convinced that Putin will seize the opportunity to undermine US global dominance. “I believe that Russia will work quickly and effectively to thwart US efforts around the world and make them impossible for the next administration that comes after Trump. It will become very dangerous in the world if the existing international order, based on the rule that you should not invade other countries, is abandoned”, the expert says.
Loss of trust
US alliances play a key role in its global position, and the weakening of these alliances will lead to a weakening of Washington on the world stage. “If Trump abandons Europe, as some fear, what will he do with the Japanese, with Taiwan?”, asks Berzina. “The attractiveness of the US has made it a huge global power. It is for this reason that many of America’s allies have been willing to fight and die alongside it in recent decades. That power will evaporate if allies feel they can no longer trust the United States.”
It is not yet clear whether the Trump-Putin meeting will end trust in the United States, but it may go down in history as a moment when a US president thought he had more in common with the world’s autocracies, thereby creating a dangerous vacuum on the world stage.
Author: Janelle Dumalon