Without US military aid, Ukraine will have enough weapons to maintain the current pace of hostilities until summer, The Wall Street Journal reports, citing Western officials, Focus reports.
After this period, the Ukrainian army (AFU) may face a shortage of ammunition and lose access to some of its most advanced weapons.
According to Celeste Wallander, a former senior Pentagon official, the large-scale arms deliveries ordered by the Joe Biden administration should ensure the combat capability of the Ukrainian army until at least the middle of the year.
However, Ukrainian analysts believe that local weapons production can extend this period. "We can hold out for six months or even a year to give Europe time to increase ammunition production," said Mykola Beleskov, a senior analyst at the Ukrainian organization "Return Alive", which supplies drones to the army.
The termination of US military aid is the worst-case scenario, said a senior adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky, emphasizing that in such a case Ukraine would have to strengthen its own military production and rely more on assistance from Europe.
The publication notes that Ukraine has already built a powerful military industry, which currently produces weapons worth $ 30 billion a year - six times more than the previous year. In 2024, the country produced about 1.5 million drones, which have become a key element of front-line defense, allowing Ukraine to repel Russian attacks with minimal losses. This year, Ukrainian authorities plan to produce 3,000 missiles and 30,000 long-range drones.
Currently, about 55% of Ukraine's military equipment is produced or financed domestically. The United States provides about 20% of the weapons, and Europe - 25%, according to a Western official.
However, some American supplies - including advanced air defense systems, surface-to-surface ballistic missiles, navigation systems and long-range rocket artillery - are difficult to replace in the short term. Europe does not produce enough of these systems or does not have them at all.
If these American deliveries stop, Ukraine's ability to strike at long distances and defend its rear areas will be seriously affected, officials and analysts warn.
“A partner that provides military technology of the highest quality is indispensable in some areas,“ said Tomasz Kopeczny, the Czech government's special envoy for the reconstruction of Ukraine.