Friedrich Merz has no reason to fall into euphoria. Yes, he will become Chancellor of Germany, as all forecasts predicted. But instead of the expected 30 percent or more of the vote, he received only 28.5 percent and will now have to form a coalition with the Social Democrats (SPD). The potential alliance with the Greens, which was discussed until recently, is not possible, since they did not win enough votes for a coalition majority, so at least the threat of a three-party coalition has been eliminated.
Challenges facing the new Chancellor of Germany
In any case, Merz realizes that he has a truly Herculean task ahead of him. The CDU/CSU and SPD blocs must quickly find common ground and heal the wounds they inflicted during the election campaign. Europe's most powerful economy has long struggled and is now among the laggards, even against the backdrop of weak economic growth in the rest of the EU. Germany needs new ideas and technologies, a new business model geared towards a digital future. Time is short and external pressure is enormous.
At the same time as coalition talks are taking place in Berlin, the fate of Europe will also be decided. US President Donald Trump has been in office for only four weeks and has already begun to change the geopolitical balance of power. His priorities are not Europe, but Russia and China. Nuclear powers now set the global course. The transatlantic partnership is disintegrating before our eyes. After the Munich Security Conference, it became clear: the future of Europe depends on what role Germany will play now.
The new German chancellor and geopolitics
Friedrich Merz must strengthen the alliance with France, which he will probably visit in the coming days. The Berlin-Paris axis, vital to Europe, has not functioned effectively in recent years, and Merz will have to correct this. Europe has always been strong when Germany and France have acted together. These two countries must lead the discussions on a ceasefire in Ukraine and the creation of a European peacekeeping force from a strong position.
Last week, Olaf Scholz claimed that the discussion on sending European troops was “confusing and untimely”. And when Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that soldiers from NATO countries should not be involved in ensuring a ceasefire in Ukraine, Scholz may even have felt relieved. Europe has never had its own peace plan, for three years it has only provided Kiev with half-hearted aid and has blindly relied on the United States.
Europe can no longer complain if it is not invited to the negotiating table for the future of Ukraine. Anyone who wants to play the game must have their own chips and be ready to stake them. These are the new rules - whether Europe likes it or not. There is a new boss in Washington and Friedrich Merz urgently needs to learn how to work with him.
Does Merz have a mandate to turn around German politics?
Many of these issues were not discussed during the election campaign. The tax breaks promised by the CDU/CSU bloc and the Social Democrats will probably be quickly forgotten. It is up to Friedrich Merz to put the country back on the right track - not only in the economy, but also in defense policy. Whether this requires two, three or even five percent of GDP, the new chancellor will decide not with Washington but with her European allies. If the US no longer wants to bear the burden of these costs, Europe will have to decide for itself what is necessary. It is possible that in a few months NATO will become primarily European, not a transatlantic alliance.
This will require huge funds that are not provided for in the budget. Germany will not be able to stick to its policy of limiting public debt (the so-called “debt brake“) for long. In November, this is precisely why the so-called “traffic light“ coalition collapsed. And the “debt brake“ will soon be just a footnote in the history books.
On Sunday, Germans showed a record voter turnout because they wanted a new chancellor. But did they vote in favor of the radical turnout in the country's politics triggered by global changes? Did they give Friedrich Merz a mandate for the tough decisions and reforms that will inevitably have to be made? It's hard to govern a country in such times, and it's even harder to turn the wheel when you have to convince everyone to move in the same direction.
In addition, we have the populists of the “Alternative for Germany“ (AfD), who doubled their results compared to the previous elections. Alice Weidel has already announced that she intends to “put pressure“ on Friedrich Merz and his government. The AfD's goal is to become the first political force in the next elections.
Strong and determined government
Merz will only be able to meet the challenges if he manages to form a strong and determined government together with the Social Democrats, in which the previous Minister of Defense Boris Pistorius will probably take a leading role. The new cabinet must restore confidence in the parties of the political center and prove that democracy can stand up to autocracy. This is perhaps her last chance.
*The author Dirk Emmerich is a correspondent for the German TV channels n-tv and RTL. He lived and worked for many years in Moscow and Washington and was a correspondent for n-tv in Syria, Libya, Afghanistan and other countries in conflict.