The New York Times and the Washington Post cite their sources among high-ranking American officials who suggest that the United States may stop all aid to Ukraine. For the time being, US President Donald Trump has not officially announced such an intention. Reducing aid would directly contradict Trump's stated goal of achieving lasting peace in Ukraine.
This is written in the latest analysis on Ukraine by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Currently, with American help, Ukrainian forces are achieving great successes against Russian forces. This, coupled with the serious challenges Russia will face in 2025, gives the United States a lot of leverage in peace negotiations.
A halt would encourage Russian President Vladimir Putin that he can achieve a complete victory through war.
ISW has repeatedly stressed the importance of continued and timely Western military assistance to Ukraine and has observed a correlation between the scale of Russian victories in Ukraine and delays or halts in Western military support.
Ukrainian forces have used U.S.-supplied military systems, including Patriot air defense systems and HIMARS and ATACMS long-range strike systems, to defend against nighttime Russian drones and missile strikes, bolster Ukraine’s strike capabilities, complicate Russian logistics and command and control, and disrupt Russia’s defense industrial base.
Ukraine’s efforts, aided by a steady stream of Western aid, have significantly slowed Russian advances at the front, inflicted significant losses on Russian forces and equipment, and undermined Russia's efforts to project economic and domestic stability amid the growing pressures of war.
Russia's economic constraints, force generation, and defense industry provide key opportunities that Ukraine, the United States, and their Western allies could use to extract concessions from Putin in peace talks.
The termination of U.S. military aid and cash assistance aimed at bolstering Ukraine's defense industry could give Russia greater advantages on the battlefield in Ukraine, increasing the likelihood of a Russian victory in Ukraine. Russia will take advantage to seize more territory in Ukraine and try to drain European support—the approach Putin outlined in his theory of victory.
Cutting off U.S. aid to Ukraine and allowing further Russian gains would also embolden Putin and reinforce his belief that Russia can seize and control Ukraine and other former Soviet countries, including current NATO members. The Kremlin is likely to step up its military campaign in Ukraine and try to exploit any slowdown or cessation of U.S. military aid to Ukraine—as the Kremlin did in the spring of 2024.
Limiting aid to Ukraine risks U.S. influence in the world and emboldens U.S. adversaries—Russia, Iran, North Korea, and China. They are already testing the limits of US commitment to its allies in Europe, the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific region.
Chinese President Xi Jinping said during a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin in late February 2025 that the countries are "true friends" who "cannot be distanced" from each other and will not be influenced by a "third party".
Russia has established bilateral strategic partnership agreements since the start of the war with the PRC in May 2023, North Korea in October 2024. and Iran in January 2025.
Putin continues to rely on Iranian drones and North Korean ballistic missiles and troops in his war against Ukraine.
U.S. aid to Ukraine is a demonstration of the United States’ commitment to defending democracies against ongoing and future aggression around the world, including but not limited to Ukraine, Israel, South Korea, and Taiwan. For the Russian-led bloc, it is an indicator that the United States will abandon its other allies and seek to test the limits of U.S. engagement around the world.
Putin, not Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, remains the primary obstacle to a lasting peace agreement for Ukraine. Zelensky has repeatedly reiterated his commitment to achieving a just and lasting peace in Ukraine through negotiations. Zelensky has indicated several times — including in his February 28 Fox News interview — that he is willing to make concessions on territory, Ukraine's NATO membership, and even his own term in office to secure a just and sustainable peace.
These concessions are consistent with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio's statement on 26 February that "what Ukraine really needs is deterrence to make it costly for anyone to pursue it again in the future" and that both the United States and Europe "can be engaged" in such deterrence efforts.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer welcomed Zelensky to London on 1 March and stressed that "Ukraine has full support in the United Kingdom". Zelensky will attend a European defense summit in London on March 2 to discuss peace plans in Ukraine and issues of joint defense.
The meeting will be attended by leaders from France, Germany, Denmark, Italy, Turkey, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Spain, Finland, Sweden, the Czech Republic and Romania, as well as NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa.