Ukrainian military intelligence indicated that about 620,000 Russian soldiers were operating in Ukraine and the Kursk region, which is about 40,000 more people than at the end of 2024.
This is calculated in its daily analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
In addition, there are about 35,000 additional servicemen from the Rosgvardia.
They guard the rear areas, and these servicemen can become a second line of defense if necessary.
In November 2024 About 580,000 Russian soldiers were operating against Ukraine, probably both on the territory of Ukraine and in the Kursk region.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced in January 2025 that the total grouping of Russian forces in Ukraine was about 600,000 soldiers.
Russian authorities reportedly exceeded their quotas for recruiting soldiers in 2024. and January 2025, likely due in part to increased financial incentives for recruits and prison recruitment efforts that are unsustainable in the medium to long term.
ISW continues to assess that increased military spending, including large payments and benefits for Russian servicemen, is hurting the Russian economy at the macro level and that the Kremlin is reducing these military spending as part of efforts to mitigate the effects of such initiatives.
It is unlikely that Russian authorities will maintain such high financial incentives as part of their recruitment campaigns in the medium to long term as the Russian economy continues to deteriorate.
Russian forces continue to innovate their strike packages and deploy greater numbers of "Shahed" unmanned aerial vehicles and decoys in an attempt to penetrate Ukraine's air defense umbrella.
Russian forces are likely using large numbers of "Shahed" drones and decoys to detect and disrupt Ukrainian air defenses and mobile fire groups.
The increasing number of drones in Russian night strike packages indicates that Russia is likely not currently facing limitations in domestic production of "Shahed" drones. and decoys or restrictions on Iranian-supplied components for the production of the "Shahed" drones.
However, it remains unclear whether Russia will be able to produce or procure enough components to avoid restrictions on drone production in the long term.
Russian missile production has not increased significantly, but Russian forces appear to be prioritizing the production of missile and drone variants that are more effective against Ukrainian air defenses.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Velika Novosilka and in the Kursk region.
The Kremlin continues to promote its "Time of Heroes" veterans program as part of an effort to militarize the Russian government and society.