A deal between the United States and Ukraine to give Washington access to develop Ukrainian rare earth elements is not on the agenda "at the moment," US Treasury Secretary Scott Besant said, Reuters reported, quoted by BTA.
When asked by CBS News whether the deal was still on the table, Besant replied: "Not at the moment."
The United States has provided Ukraine with artillery ammunition, armored vehicles, towed howitzers, Patriot air defense batteries and long-range missile and rocket systems such as HIMARS and ATACMS - many of which are sophisticated systems that only the United States can deliver. Pauses in this aid will hurt Ukraine’s military capabilities, although it will likely take weeks to months before the suspension of US aid affects the front lines.
This is according to another analysis on Ukraine by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Western officials suggested in late February 2025 that Ukraine would be able to maintain its current pace of operations until around mid-2025 (approximately June 2025), as long as the United States continues to provide the aid agreed upon under the Biden administration within the previously agreed timeframes. A Ukrainian official told CNN on March 4 after the suspension that Ukraine could run out of U.S.-supplied artillery shells by May or June 2025, but warned that Patriot air defense missiles could run out "within weeks."
Ukraine relies heavily on U.S. Patriot systems for its air defense umbrella to protect against Russian missile strikes from Ukraine's rear areas. Their shortage and eventual absence would likely have a serious impact on the security of Ukraine's critical, industrial, and civilian infrastructure.
Kiev will have to make difficult decisions about which population centers to prioritize for air defense protection.
The front line in Ukraine is not at risk of imminent collapse, but the effects of the pause in U.S. aid will become more acute over time. Two anonymous US officials told ABC News on March 3 that about 90 percent of the weapons the United States has provided to Ukraine through previous Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) packages have already arrived in Ukraine, including ammunition and anti-armor systems.
ABC News reported that the remaining 10 percent of the equipment is still scheduled to arrive in Ukraine by August 2025. and that private arms contracts between Ukraine and American companies - many of which Ukraine has already paid for - are likely to facilitate at least a small flow of arms supplies to Ukraine "at least for the next few years".
The US reportedly supplies about 30 percent of Ukraine's arsenal, with Ukraine's European partners supplying another 30 percent, and Ukraine itself, supplying domestic supplies, supplies about 40 percent of local production, according to Oleg Katkov, editor-in-chief of the Ukrainian defense-focused publication Defence Express.
Ukraine will continue to fight with the materiel it currently has, with the materiel that European partners have provided and will continue to provide, and with the materiel that Ukraine itself produces. The Trump administration’s aid pause will be detrimental to Ukraine’s ability to defend itself and conduct offensive operations at its current pace, but it will not completely collapse the front in the coming months.
Russian forces are likely to take advantage of the expected shortage of Ukrainian materials if the suspension of U.S. military aid continues, as Russian forces did during the previous suspension of U.S. military aid in early 2024. Russian forces significantly increased their pace of operations in the Avdiivka-Pokrovsk direction in early 2024 to take advantage of the Ukrainian supply shortage.
Ukrainian officials have indicated that Russian forces had an approximately 20-to-one artillery shell superiority and “enormous air superiority” over Ukrainian forces in that direction during the peak of the Ukrainian supply shortage in May and June 2024. and that these were the main factors allowing Russian forces to make a slow and costly advance northwest and west of Avdiivka at that time.
Russian forces also began offensive operations in May 2024. along the international border of the Belgorod-Kharkov region as part of an effort to capture the city of Kharkiv, likely as part of an attempt to take advantage of the delay in US aid disbursements and advance before US military aid reaches Ukrainian forces on the front lines once US aid is resumed.
Russian forces are currently conducting active offensive operations in Kharkiv, Luhansk and Donetsk regions, have recently stepped up their efforts in western Zaporizhia region, and are continuing their attempts to cross the Dnieper River in Kherson region.
Russian forces are likely to try to take advantage of the pause in US aid to make progress in eastern and southern Ukraine and to assert their territorial claims to the entire Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions.
The European Commission (EC) proposed a plan on 4 March that would allow EU member states to increase defence spending in support of of Ukraine and strengthening European security. European rearmament is vital for Europe's short and long-term security, and Europe must continue these efforts, regardless of the state of US aid to Ukraine. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced on 4 March the five-part ReArm Europe plan, which aims to help EU member states "rapidly and significantly increase spending on defence capabilities".
Leyen said the EU was ready to significantly increase its defence spending to "address the short-term urgency to act and support Ukraine" and "to address the long-term need to take much greater responsibility for European security". The first part of the ReArm Europe plan calls on the EU to activate the "national exemption clause" of the Stability and Growth Pact to allow EU member states to increase their defense spending without triggering the excessive deficit procedure.
The Stability and Growth Pact limits the budget deficits of EU members, and activating the "national escape clause" would allow EU countries to run larger budget deficits than usual in order to increase their defense spending.
Von der Leyen said that if countries increased their defense spending by an average of 1.5 percent of their GDP, this would make nearly 650 billion euros available over four years. The second part of the plan would provide 150 billion euros in loans to EU member states for defense investments, including in air and missile defense, artillery systems, missiles, drones and anti-drone systems. Members would have to "pool demand and buy together" and that EU countries can "massively increase their support for Ukraine" with this equipment.
The third part of the plan calls for using the "power of the EU budget" to channel additional funds into defense-related investments. Leyen said the last two parts of the proposed plan aim to mobilise private capital by accelerating the Savings and Investment Union and through the European Investment Bank. Von der Leyen concluded that the ReArm Europe plan could "mobilise" nearly €800 billion.
ISW continues to believe that Ukraine's prospects for sustaining its military needs in the future with limited foreign aid are excellent.
The Ukrainian parliament (Verkhovna Rada) and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed on 4 March Ukraine's commitment to work with the Trump administration to achieve a sustainable and lasting peace in Ukraine. The leadership of the Verkhovna Rada and parliamentary factions and groups issued a joint statement welcoming Trump's efforts to start peace talks and stressing the need to develop a strategic partnership with the United States through the minerals agreement.
Zelensky said that Ukraine was ready to sit at the negotiating table "as soon as possible to bring lasting peace closer." He suggested that Ukraine and Russia release prisoners of war, ban long-range missile and drone strikes on energy and civilian infrastructure, and achieve an immediate ceasefire in the Black Sea. Zelensky thanked the United States for its support for Ukraine's sovereignty and independence, expressed regret over the February 28 meeting with Trump at the White House that "did not go the way it should have," and reiterated Ukraine's readiness to sign the minerals deal.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has made no proposals for a ceasefire since Trump took office on January 20. Kremlin officials have instead formally rejected the possibility of a ceasefire under any conditions other than the complete surrender of Ukraine and the West by the end of February 2025.
The high casualties in Russia’s war in Ukraine are a direct result of Putin’s determination to conquer all of Ukraine using horrific and costly tactics, and Putin can dramatically reduce these killings whenever he wants. Russian forces are conducting highly attritional, infantry-led frontline attacks that inflict heavy casualties but return only disproportionately limited territorial gains.
Putin stated in June 2024 that Russia is unable to secure a quick victory in the war, and that Russian forces are instead pursuing a more gradual victory.
Putin then stated that Russian forces are attempting to "push" Ukrainian forces "out of those territories that should be under Russian control". Putin is committed to gradual, creeping gains at the expense of heavy casualties, and likely believes that these limited gains could set the stage over time for Russia to demand more Ukrainian territory during future peace talks or allow it to conquer Ukraine entirely. Putin's willingness to continue this lethal approach is leading to high levels of casualties on the battlefield. Russia has also been conducting nighttime drone and missile strikes against Ukrainian rear areas, killing civilians and destroying and damaging Ukrainian civilian and energy infrastructure—further increasing the death toll in the war in Ukraine.
The Kremlin continues to express cautious optimism about the suspension of U.S. military aid to Ukraine and has advanced several narratives as part of efforts to impose additional demands on the United States. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov welcomed the pause in U.S. military aid in a statement to Kremlin propagandist Pavel Zarubin on March 4. Russia may hope, "without succumbing to excessive optimism", that the suspension of military aid will "inclin" the Ukrainian government towards "peace".
Peskov deliberately misrepresented the Kremlin's desired outcome of the war - a complete Ukrainian surrender, triggered by the end of Western military aid to Ukraine - as a "peaceful" outcome. Peskov also noted that the United States was providing Ukraine with intelligence, such as satellite intelligence data - likely in an attempt to set informational conditions for the Kremlin to demand that the US stop providing intelligence support to Ukraine as a prerequisite for a future "peaceful settlement". Peskov also demanded that the US lift sanctions against Russia as a prerequisite for improving bilateral relations between the US and Russia.
On March 3, Peskov framed European support for Ukraine as the emergence of a European "pro-war party" and the Kremlin is likely setting information conditions to require the United States to halt arms sales to Europe that support Ukraine's defense.
The Kremlin's rhetoric is designed to confuse and mislead U.S. policymakers into making additional preemptive concessions while continuing to avoid making any concessions of its own.
as expected, during their meeting at the White House on Friday.
The two then engaged in a verbal exchange, with Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance accusing Zelensky of not being "appreciative enough" for U.S. aid to Kiev in resisting the Russian invasion.