Those who already think that coffee is expensive are wrong: its price in supermarkets will continue to rise, predict analysts at the Dutch "Rabobank" (Rabobank), quoted by the "Telegraph" newspaper. This will lead to reduced coffee purchases. Suppliers are also observing that offices and organizations are looking for alternatives, such as cheaper coffee or instant coffee, BTA writes.
Coffee prices are currently breaking all records on the world market, notes the bank's analyst Sebastian Schreien. "For the next marketing year, we expect a decline in coffee bean prices, but due to the lagged effect on raw materials, coffee prices in supermarkets will continue to rise for some time", he says.
The reasons for this are poor harvests, logistical problems and stockpiling. As a result, global coffee bean prices have almost doubled in less than a year.
Supermarket prices for coffee packets, cups and coasters have also risen by around 8 percent. That's still not too bad when you consider how much coffee beans cost now, says bank analyst François Sonneville. "It takes some time before you see the coffee purchase prices reflected on the price tag. It has to do with supply contracts and the timing of negotiations between roasters and buyers." He expects the high prices of coffee beans to eventually fall.
At the beginning of 2025, the average price per kilogram of coffee in the supermarket was still around 15 euros, the newspaper recalls. In the coming months, it will reach 20 euros, analysts expect. "This is based solely on the higher prices of coffee beans", says Schreien. "The other increases are additional: for example, transport, inventory and personnel". This would mean that the price in supermarkets could reach 25 euros per kilogram, the newspaper writes.
This is already causing a battle between supermarkets and producers, leading to empty shelves. But the effects of the high prices are also being felt in stores, says George Schoff of coffee supplier "Maas" (MAAS), which supplies coffee to around 2,500 organizations. "Many customers are calling us. "People don't want to drink less coffee and companies are asking for alternatives," he says.
This could be done, for example, by installing fewer coffee machines, replacing expensive coffee with cheaper ones, offering powdered milk instead of fresh milk or switching to instant coffee. "We're seeing all of these," says Schoff. "If prices go up that much, sometimes you'll have to make a choice," he warns.
Cut-out coffee completely is not an option for anyone, he stresses. "In the Netherlands, coffee is part of our culture. In southern Europe, you can see employees going out for coffee, but here it's not."
Whether coffee prices will really make such a price jump depends partly on demand, Rabobank analysts emphasize. "The drop in demand could dampen price increases," says Sonneville. Global consumers have already bought about 5 percent less coffee in the past two years because of rising prices. "Coffee may be addictive, but people don't buy it at any price," he says.