Washington's decision to stop the exchange of intelligence information with Ukraine is a serious blow to Kiev, which suddenly began to suffer from myopia on the battlefield when it comes to the accuracy of strikes and the protection of its weapons and soldiers, BTA writes, citing AFP.
On Wednesday, after the announcement of the freeze on US military aid, CIA chief John Ratcliffe "paused" intelligence sharing with Kiev.
While its impact cannot be measured as easily as halting the supply of military equipment, intelligence sharing is essential, according to Western experts consulted by AFP, especially on a battlefield whose transparency is unparalleled in the history of warfare.
"Taking away access to this potential treasure trove of intelligence leaves a gap that is difficult to fill," says Nick Brown, an expert at the British private intelligence company "Janes". "The longer this "pause" continues, the more it will be felt in Kiev. And in Moscow.".
In fact, in the winter of 2021-2022, Washington knew before anyone else what the Russian military was up to. And immediately after the invasion on February 24, 2022, his role helped prevent the fall of Kiev.
Subsequently, notes the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), "Ukrainian strikes on Russian missile and ammunition depots relieved the pressure" on Kiev, preventing the Kremlin's forces from "taking advantage of their artillery superiority".
The strikes on Russian territory, dependent on access to first-class information, also forced Moscow's aviation to retreat, "reducing its ability to strike with guided bombs and missiles [...] from Russian airspace".
"With immediate effect"
Today, Kiev benefits from state-of-the-art systems for early detection of enemy strikes, target identification, verification of the effect of operations and detection of troop movements.
A year ago, French expert Stephane Audran warned of the risk to Ukrainian security posed by the possible re-election of Donald Trump.
"Whether it is a question of missile strikes or ground movements, the American "Real-time" assistance is as important as the shells. Without it, Ukraine will soon find itself, if not blind, then at least one-eyed and short-sighted."
On the website "Spectacular", British historian Mark Galeotti emphasizes the immediate consequences of Washington's decision.
"It will probably be several months before the pause (in the supply of American military equipment) begins to have a tangible impact on operations. On the other hand, the suspension of intelligence sharing has an immediate effect," he notes.
"Satellite images, "Global Hawk" unmanned surveillance aircraft, "Poseidon" reconnaissance aircraft and "Rivet Joint", as well as the multitude of platforms and means for human, signals and cyber intelligence give the US - and for now Ukraine - an unprecedentedly accurate and detailed picture of the battlefield," he points out.
And while the Ukrainians have certain capabilities, "they cannot replace or replicate the volume" provided by the US.
As for their European allies such as Britain and France, "they can offer similar satellite and aviation capabilities, but generally on a much smaller scale," Nick Brown agrees.
Capabilities that are "unrivaled"
The Americans have in practice a power superior to that of their (former?) European allies. Especially in terms of images, with cameras capable of piercing clouds, vegetation and some forms of camouflage. Also in the field of interception of communications and electronic intelligence.
"Their ability to detect, analyze, track and visualize military assets is unparalleled", assures the "Janes" expert.
However, several questions remain, against the backdrop of a global - especially American - context - in which every day brings its surprises and new solutions.
What, for example, about private companies, some of which provide impressive image quality?
Thus, the "Maxar" group signed in September 2022 a contract worth 44 million dollars for three years, with the potential for extension, with the US National Geospatial Intelligence Agency, affiliated with the US Department of Defense.
The aim was to provide geospatial intelligence to the Ukrainians, according to French expert Cyril Jelipte. "In theory, the contract will continue, but it will end in September 2025, unless Trump decides to terminate it earlier", he warns.
He also reminds us that the highly bureaucratic American intelligence is sometimes difficult to control. "It has already happened that lower-level personnel did not do what the hierarchy says and worked separately".
Is it possible for the CIA and other agencies to ignore the orders of the Trump administration. "That is questionable", the historian assures.