The dominance of the US dollar in the world is currently under the greatest threat in the last fifty years due to the policies of President Donald Trump, believes former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers. In his opinion, Trump has the right goal of supporting American industry, but the method of achieving this goal in the form of trade tariffs for almost the entire world could motivate many countries to impose retaliatory tariffs and even refuse to trade with the United States, which could also significantly weaken dolapa.
"China and Europe could become "magnets" to attract capital, while the group may quickly move away from the dollar", warns Sumpc.
According to many other international analysts, however, the threats to the dollar economy appear greatly exaggerated, according to an analysis by the financial portal Investing.com.
The dollar is supported by the relative strength of the US economy, which will grow by 2.8% in 2024. Although this growth is below the average - of 3.2% - for the entire global economy, it is significantly higher than that of the EC and the G7 countries, where the growth of the B&P; in 2024. is about 1%.
ΠThe current de-dollarization initiated by the BRICS countries, with the aim of reducing the risks of possible sanctions, trade wars and embargoes, does not pose a threat to the US dollar as the world's reserve currency, financial analysts believe. According to estimates by the SWIFT system, about 47% of all international trade and other payments are made in US dollars, and less than 20% - in euros, which currency, according to IMF forecasts, is the most likely competitor to the "green currency".
If in the future a certain "anti-dollar" is formed on the basis of the BRICS money", which could include a large number of countries from Asia, Africa and Latin America, this could lead to a significant reduction in the role of the dollar in international payments, for example, up to 30% or even less.
Πr such a (for now hypothetical) situation, the US would have serious reason to draw conclusions about how to deal with a similar position - for example, with sanctions, new raw tariffs or, conversely, negotiations with other countries, so that part of the payments are made in dollars "in exchange" for the US refusal to use the currency as a political weapon.