As early as 2020, the German foreign intelligence service BND considered that with almost 95% certainty the coronavirus originated in an accident in a Chinese laboratory in Wuhan. However, this information was apparently withheld.
The German federal intelligence service BND was of the opinion that it was very likely that the cause of the global coronavirus pandemic was due to an incident in China. This was reported by the “Süddeutsche Zeitung“ and “Die Zeit“. In addition to an analysis of public data, it is mainly based on materials obtained as part of an intelligence operation codenamed “Saaremaa“, as reported by the media. According to reports, this included scientific data from Chinese research institutions, including the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
Laboratory accident – up to 95 percent probability
The institute in question is among China's leading virus research institutions. It has also conducted research on various types of coronaviruses. In addition to evidence of risky experiments in which naturally occurring viruses were artificially modified, the material from “Saaremaa“ is also said to show numerous violations of laboratory safety rules.
According to BND reports, the theory of an accident in the Wuhan laboratory is estimated to be 80 to 95 percent likely. The second hypothesis, according to which the virus has a natural origin, was considered less likely, ARD reports.
The information has remained confidential
However, the German chancellery has decided not to publicize this fiery thesis, writes “Süddeutsche Zeitung“. When contacted by the media, former Chancellor Angela Merkel did not wish to comment on the issue.
The head of the BND, Bruno Kahl, later informed again - when Olaf Scholz was already Chancellor. However, he also refused to comment publicly on information relating to the activities of the secret services.
At the end of last year, however, the German government decided to commission external experts to verify the BND's findings. Since December 2024, leading scientists have been verifying the BND's claims - among them the president of the “Robert Koch“ Institute Lars Schade and the famous virologist Christian Drosten. There is still no final result of this investigation.
The US government is also investigating the origin issue
The new US administration of Donald Trump, whose actions during the pandemic have drawn much criticism, is also investigating this theory again. In January, the new CIA director John Ratcliffe changed his agency's assessment of the origin of the coronavirus.
The available data spoke more in favor of the theory of the laboratory origin of the virus, it is clear from this assessment. Previously, the CIA believed that there was not enough information to assess whether the virus was transferred from animals to humans or was the result of an unfortunate accident in a Chinese laboratory. In this regard, the ARD recalls that Ratcliffe has previously defended the theory of the laboratory origin of the pandemic and accused Beijing of hiding the origin of the virus.
Virologists accept the theory of natural origin
One of the arguments of supporters of the laboratory theory is that China should have provided scientific evidence of the natural origin of the virus long ago. “Chinese scientists have all the technical capabilities to do this“, virologist Christian Drosten told the German “Tageszeitung“ in January. He himself also expected such studies - but they never appeared. “And the more time passes, the more skeptical we become. It is possible that the interests of the state do not allow studies in this direction. The other explanation, however, would be that the virus was not of natural origin at all,” Drosten writes.
At the same time, Drosten still believes that it is more likely that SARS-CoV-2 is of natural origin - “and almost all scientists working on the subject agree on this”. Based on the currently available data, it can be assumed that the virus jumped to humans via intermediate hosts, for example from livestock farms, says Fabian Leenderz, director of the Helmholtz Institute in Greifswald.
The question of the origin of the virus remains a mystery to this day. Clarifying it is becoming more difficult because the Chinese government is blocking WHO investigations. There is still no convincing evidence for either theory of the origin of the coronavirus.