Threats of trade wars with China, Europe and Canada, the war in Gaza, a collapsing stock market and protests against massive layoffs within the country: US President Donald Trump is fighting on several fronts at once.
Against this backdrop, the question arises: will the US abandon Ukraine? It seems that it is only a matter of time before the answer is “yes”. After the recent, so far unsuccessful, attempts to reach a truce between Kiev and Moscow, many factors point in that direction.
Trump: “Ukraine may not survive”
Recently, US President Donald Trump himself touched on this issue. In an interview with the American television channel “Fox News” after the scandal in the White House he was asked if he could accept the fact that Ukraine might not survive the war with Russia.
Trump's response was: “Well, Ukraine might not survive the war anyway. It takes two to fight a war. In fact, this war should not have started in the first place, but it did. And now we are in this mess“.
Rubio: “Ukraine has to make concessions”
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has made it clear that the fate of Ukraine is not a priority for US foreign policy since the hearing before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on January 15.
The Republican said that the US remains loyal to its closest allies - he specifically mentioned Israel and Taiwan, but not Ukraine. Instead, he said: “Global issues that do not serve American interests, such as Ukraine or development cooperation, will be reviewed.” In Rubio’s words, “Ukraine must make concessions and every cent of foreign aid will be reviewed to determine whether it is being spent properly and effectively.”
Nobody wants war with Russia
The US withdrawal from its role as global policeman was announced even before Trump’s first term. "None of Trump’s predecessors committed to fighting for Ukraine," recalls Stefan Wertheim, an expert at the "Carnegie Endowment" in an article for the British newspaper “Guardian". US President Joe Biden has explicitly ruled out the possibility of sending US troops to Ukraine. "And no NATO ally has defended Ukraine with its own troops," says Wertheim.
The reason is obvious: "That would mean war with Russia," writes Wertheim. "And this prospect scares NATO allies, no matter what happens in Ukraine. It is understandable that the US and Trump do not want to go to war over Ukraine, no matter how much the Europeans cannot accept such a thing," notes the expert.
"Ukraine could simply be a pawn given to the Russians"
Stefan Meister, a Russia expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations, sharply criticized Trump's refusal to provide guarantees for Ukraine's security. "By doing this alone, he has already significantly worsened both his own and Kiev's position in the negotiations," commented Meister. "Why would Moscow compromise at all when the American president is already offering them half of what they want?" the expert asks. He fears that Ukraine could simply be sidelined in the process of reshaping Russian-American relations. "My impression is that Trump is ultimately not interested in Ukraine," he explains. "From the US perspective, Ukraine could simply be a pawn given to the Russians to get other things."
A deal over the heads of the Europeans
These "other things" perhaps related to the topics mentioned by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in his speech before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee: Israel and peace in the Middle East, relations with China, the conflict with Iran, as well as the rapprochement between Washington and Moscow.
American author Robert Kagan no longer harbors any illusions in this regard. "President Trump has made it clear that the United States is no longer prepared to defend Europe", the former Republican, who has advised various US presidents, explained to “Die Zeit”.
According to Kagan, the original American idea of defending democracy in other regions of the world is completely foreign to Trump: "He seems to have no qualms about making a "deal" with Putin's criminal regime over the heads of the Europeans".
Author: Astrid Prange