The Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 caused a shock wave in Europe. After nearly eight decades of peace, it seemed as if the very idea of war was unthinkable on the continent, which enjoyed relative security and a high standard of living, writes BTA.
During his first term as US president in the period 2017-2021, Donald Trump made it clear that his country would not defend NATO allies that did not spend at least 2% of their gross domestic product (GDP) on defense. And although Europe listened to some extent to the warnings of the Republican with the significant motto "America first", it seemed to calm down after he was succeeded in the White House by Democrat Joe Biden, who was quick to reaffirm the traditional alliances of the United States.
And then the war in Ukraine broke out to a huge surprise for many on the Old Continent despite the events of the previous decade and the warnings that Russia was preparing to invade the neighboring country. Now, more than three years later, Europe still seems in shock, although many countries have taken serious measures to increase their defense capacity, and their assistance to Kiev, along with the American one, plays a key role in the defense of Ukraine. Added to this was the re-election of US President Trump, which put the traditional transatlantic alliance under serious doubt.
Europe is facing its greatest threat since the 1940s, writes the magazine. "Foreign Policy". The American publication argues that at a time when the war in Ukraine has entered its fourth year, Trump's political turn suddenly put the continent before the prospect of war with Russia, without the full support of the United States.
The Trump administration is negotiating peace directly with Moscow and Kiev without the participation of European countries. At the same time, it is asking them to provide guarantees for the security of Ukraine without American participation and is questioning its readiness to defend NATO allies in the event of an attack in accordance with Article 5 of the Washington Treaty, which founded the alliance, the publication notes.
The armed forces of European countries are not well prepared for the new situation in which they suddenly found themselves. And while many on the continent blame Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin for the harsh reality they have suddenly woken up to, Europeans must admit that they are now paying the price for their own geopolitical inertia, the American magazine comments.
History is full of examples of leaders who turned a blind eye to geopolitics and ultimately paid a high price for it, reminds "Foreign Policy". The French emperor Napoleon, for example, ignored geographical challenges by invading Russia in 1812 - a campaign that resulted in catastrophic losses for the Grande Armée, and contributed to the defeat at Waterloo three years later. More than a century later, Hitler repeated Napoleon's fatal mistake by ordering the invasion of the Soviet Union in 1941, and as a result, Nazi Germany was forced to fight a devastating war on two fronts. The Ming Dynasty in China made one of the most geopolitical miscalculations, banning seafaring in the mid-15th century - several decades before Europeans began the Great Geographical Discoveries and colonized almost the entire planet.
Europe did not learn from these three historical examples and simultaneously ignored three separate geopolitical developments, summarizes "Foreign Policy".
First, it largely turned a blind eye to the re-emergence of Russia, which had weakened after the collapse of the Soviet Union, into an imperial power.
Second, Europe missed the rise of China, which is emerging as the main geopolitical rival of the United States. It is no coincidence that the United States has shifted its attention from the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific region, which has become its number one priority.
When in 2011 When President Barack Obama announced that the priority for American foreign policy was now Asia, only two European NATO countries were spending at least 2% of their GDP on defense. Ten years later, and despite the annexation of Crimea and the outbreak of conflict in eastern Ukraine, only four countries still met this criterion.
Indeed, one reason for this inertia was the United States’ transfer of troops to Europe and warships to the Atlantic in response to Russian actions in 2014, commented "Foreign Policy". Many representatives of the European elite at the time seemed to believe that Europe had once again become a priority for American foreign policy. However, they ignored the lasting nature of the shift in the balance of power towards Asia, which is based on the rise of China and its transformation into the main geopolitical rival of the United States.
In 2023, Beijing spent $309 billion on defense - more than all the countries of East and South Asia combined. This means that China could easily establish dominance over the region if the United States withdrew its armed forces from there, commented "Foreign Policy".
The situation in Europe is very different. The Russian economy, for example, is smaller than Italy's in terms of nominal GDP. So Europe's inability to deter and contain Russia is entirely due to a lack of political will - in the past and now, the publication adds.
The American publication explains precisely the different balance of power on the two continents as the reason for the Trump administration's desire to negotiate a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine: this would allow the United States to focus its attention on Asia.
The third geopolitical development that Europe has ignored is the partnership between Beijing and Moscow.
China's economic rise has enabled Russia to diversify its trade relations and reduce its dependence on Europe. And this has been extremely important for it since 2014, when the West began to impose economic sanctions on it, first because of the annexation of Crimea.
In addition, despite being the smaller partner, Russia knows that China is too busy with its rivalry with the United States in the Pacific, which mitigates its perception of a possible threat from it, comments "Foreign Policy".
That is, the revival of Russian imperialism, the reorientation of the United States towards Asia, and the partnership between Beijing and Moscow should have forced European leaders to rethink the continental architecture in the field of security. However, this has not happened, the magazine summarizes.
Among the possible reasons "Foreign Policy" lists the inertia into which Europeans have fallen in recent decades, distinguished by peace and relative prosperity, the lack of real leaders, but also the secondary role in which the Old Continent has fallen compared to the United States after World War II.
The events of recent years have definitively put an end to the theory of the "end of history" and the hopes of the West, but especially in Europe, for the permanent establishment of a liberal world order based on democracy, free trade and strong international institutions.
To avoid the unfortunate fate of leaders who remained blind to geopolitical realities, Europe needs a comprehensive strategy that coordinates positions on security, democracy and the economy. This task, however, will be difficult, given the political divisions and the lack of strong leadership on the continent, summarizes "Foreign Policy".
Against this backdrop, German intelligence has warned that Russia intends to test the unity of the West, especially with regard to NATO's collective defense clause, DPA reported.
However, there are reasons for optimism. The courageous resistance of the Ukrainian army has not allowed Russia to achieve its goals quickly and may have provided Europe with a reprieve of between 5 and 10 years to prepare.
Last year, 23 of the 32 NATO countries already met the goal of spending at least 2% of their GDP on defense. In comparison, only three countries met this criterion 10 years earlier, according to a report on the NATO website.
And some of the European allies, primarily Poland and the Baltic republics bordering Russia, are particularly active, for example, announcing earlier this week that they are withdrawing from the Anti-Personnel Mine Ban Treaty. Poland, which ranks first in NATO in defense spending (over 4% of GDP last year), has begun building the "Eastern Shield" defense line along its borders with Russia and its ally Belarus, the Polish Press Agency reported.
In addition, the continent's political leaders have realized that they can no longer rely entirely and with certainty on the United States of President Donald Trump and have begun active diplomatic activity to adapt to the new realities. French President Emmanuel Macron, whose country is the only nuclear power in the European Union, has proposed extending the French nuclear umbrella over the entire continent.
There is a growing awareness in the EU that strategic autonomy is needed to avoid being exposed to vulnerability on the international stage. The creation of the new post of European Commissioner for Defence, which is held by Lithuanian Andrius Kubilius, reflects the shift in security to a priority for the EU following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The big question is whether the European Union will be able to demonstrate the political will and move from words to action.