EUvsDisinfo: The Kremlin’s sudden interest in democracy
Recently, Moscow’s emissaries have increasingly been sending messages of peace. The Kremlin saw an opportunity to usurp the global narrative of peace talks in Ukraine. Rightly or wrongly, Moscow sees the current geopolitical situation as a favorable moment to consolidate some of the central theses of pro-Kremlin disinformation about Ukraine, the West, and most importantly, Russia itself. Hence the apparent pursuit of peace amid talk of “root causes” and the portrayal of Russia as a victim rather than an aggressor.
This week we will look at how the Kremlin is pushing for wartime elections in Ukraine - only to back down when the possibility of such elections is put on the negotiating table. The Kremlin seems to be interested in democracy only when it can guarantee that the ballot boxes will be filled in a way that benefits Moscow.
The Kremlin as the Guardian of Democracy
Until very recently, the narrative has consisted of calling the Ukrainian government illegitimate and accusing it of obstructing peace, as well as insisting on holding elections in Ukraine to remove Zelensky because Moscow refuses to negotiate with the current president. The desired effect of this narrative was twofold. First, to portray Ukraine and its supporters as unconstructive warmongers. And second, to portray Russia as a supporter of democracy and the rule of law, actively seeking to save Ukraine from disintegration.
Quick turnaround
Of course, it is possible that the Russian bluff had an impact – there are now some indications that Ukraine may be preparing for new elections despite the extreme complications and constraints resulting from a full-scale Russian war against Ukraine. This development caught Kremlin spokespeople off guard - they had to start both downplaying the significance of the potential elections and not stray too far from the established narrative calling for such elections.
Now the Kremlin is trying to iron out the inconsistencies it created in its messaging. One way is by claiming that the elections in Ukraine are a necessary condition for progress in peace talks, while at the same time already starting to delegitimize the elections by sowing disinformation about electoral fraud and lack of transparency. Another preferred approach, as you might guess, is to accuse Brussels of preventing elections in Ukraine. Bold claims, knowing that they are being made by a regime with such extensive experience in electoral manipulation and in stifling freedom of speech and the media.
Russia's goals have not changed - the disintegration of Ukraine
Since the end of President Zelensky's peacetime term in May 2024, the Kremlin has been waging a vociferous disinformation campaign to undermine the legitimacy of the Ukrainian leadership. Of course, propagandists conveniently overlook the fact that - regardless of current developments - the Constitution of Ukraine is crystal clear: elections cannot be held during wartime, and the president exercises his powers until a newly elected president takes office.
Why is Russia so determined to deploy its vast information manipulation and foreign interference apparatus to undermine democracy in Ukraine? The reason is that overthrowing the democratically elected Ukrainian government and replacing it with a puppet regime loyal to the Kremlin was one of Russia's stated goals for its full-scale invasion, and that has not changed since day one. Despite recent pro-Kremlin claims to the contrary and the beginning of peace talks, the Kremlin is still pursuing this shameful goal. A historical parallel can be drawn with the United Kingdom during World War II, when parliamentary elections were postponed while the country was at war.
It's only democratic when Russia does it
The disinformation machine has targeted democratic electoral processes because for the Kremlin, elections are a battlefield. Examples include systematic attacks on the European elections with smear campaigns and externally orchestrated operations, attempts to interfere in the German elections, attacks on the referendum on Moldova's EU candidacy, and manipulative campaigns against pro-European protests following the disputed elections in Georgia. The common thread in all of these cases - much like the Kremlin's current preparations for possible elections in Ukraine - is is to push the misleading idea that free and fair elections are just the fruit of Western propaganda.
The Kremlin's reaction to Marine Le Pen's conviction for embezzlement by a French court exposed this reflex to the fullest extent. The pro-Kremlin disinformation machine began spewing allegations of an "EU dictatorship" and "election interference" even before the final verdict was pronounced.
And in stark contrast - when Belarus, Russia's vassal, organizes Moscow-style fictitious elections to cement the Lukashenko regime's power for another ill-gotten mandate, the Kremlin's mouthpieces remain suspiciously silent. Even when Minsk shows political prisoners with forced confessions on state television. The apparently proclaimed "defense of democracy" on the part of Russia is quite selective. The fate of Russian opposition leaders such as Boris Nemtsov, Alexei Navalny and many others is also very indicative.
Legitimizing the appropriation of foreign territory through fictitious elections: an old recipe
Moscow’s apparent affinity for expressing the will of the people that we see now is deceptive. In fact, the Kremlin has a long and shameful history of electoral manipulation to justify territorial gains or consolidate its own illegitimate power. We do not have to look far to remember the violent referendums under the control of the Russian occupiers in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson, or the staged spectacles every six years that establish Putin as the eternal ruler of Russia. These carefully staged spectacles may at first glance look like free elections, but they have nothing to do with democracy. The Kremlin uses them as tools of deception and control. Let us not be fooled.
Other topics in this week’s EUvsDisinfo roundup:
- An almost transparent threat, if ever there was one – the claim that the constant arms supply to Moldova increases the risk of an attack on Transnistria. Curiously, this misleading narrative does not mention who will carry out the attack, but the implication is more than clear. This is the old and well-known practice of the Kremlin to accuse the victim of being the aggressor. In this case, this means that any self-defense by Moldova would be considered aggression in Russian eyes. At the same time, the narrative seeks to suggest that there is an alleged militarization of Moldova. Moldovan authorities have repeatedly rejected these claims, rightly emphasizing that, according to the constitution, Moldova remains a militarily neutral state, committed to peace – while strengthening its defense capabilities. Given what Russia has done in Ukraine, it seems more than reasonable to think of defense improvements as insurance against the proven, aggressive practices that Russia has demonstrated.
- The old narrative that popular protests are covert operations by the West to incite regime change has come to the fore again. Now Moscow's mouthpieces want you to believe that Brussels is preparing color revolutions in Serbia, Hungary, and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Without a single piece of evidence, of course. So, let's look at the facts. In the case of the protests in Serbia, they began in mid-December 2024, after a concrete structure at the Novi Sad railway station collapsed, killing 15 people. In Hungary, thousands of people took to the streets to protest a new law that effectively bans LGBTQ+ parades and restricts the right to assemble. And in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the legal problems of Republika Srpska leader Milorad Dodik began not because of an EU conspiracy, but because of an indictment by a Bosnian court that he violated the country's constitutional order.
- We have written many times about the Kremlin's obsession with the Nazis. The label "Nazi" is applied indiscriminately, with which the Kremlin slanders real or perceived opponents of Russia. Now the EU stands up to defend itself and Ukraine, and - unsurprisingly - Kremlin mouthpieces are once again resorting to this language. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has been called a "Führer", and the EU has been accused of becoming a bastion of liberal totalitarianism. This blatant attempt to portray Russia as a victim of alleged European aggression came after the EU's decision to mobilize an additional 800 billion euros for defense needs. With such false accusations, the Kremlin wants to divert attention from the real, long-known Russian aggressive position. Russia wants war, not peace.
EUvsDisinfo/ translation: European Commission Representation in Bulgaria