With coolness, but also strong concern, the Greek government welcomed the announced imposition of a 20 percent tariff on exports from the European Union to the United States. And while yesterday US President Donald Trump took a step back and announced a pause in the new tariffs for some countries, calculations about how a possible trade war would affect the Greek economy remain relevant, insofar as they are indicative of the level of its vulnerability to Washington's unpredictable moves, BTA writes.
The Greek newspaper „Ta nea“ commented that according to initial estimates, the direct consequences of the tariffs will be limited, as exports to the US market are only 4.9 percent of Greece's total exports and amount to 2.4 billion euros in 2024.
“The trade war that is starting will ultimately benefit no one. It will harm everyone“, said Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis a few days ago, but he was quick to assure that “the Greek economy with a plan(s) and responsibility will be able to respond to these difficult challenges“.
In an interview with “Bloomberg”, the governor of the Central Bank of Greece, Yannis Stournaras, said that Greece will suffer limited direct consequences of the US tariffs. “The direct effects are not expected to be significant. "However, the Greek economy will be affected indirectly through the negative effect on the growth of the eurozone's gross domestic product," Stournaras pointed out.
According to estimates by the Piraeus Chamber of Commerce and Industry, cited by the Greek edition of “Fortune“, the US tariffs will cost Greece around 0.5 percent of its gross domestic product, or approximately 1.1 billion euros per year. Currently, exports to the US generate around 1 percent of Greece's GDP, but with the introduction of the new rates, exports are expected to drop by between 7 and 15 percent.
As Alkiviadis Kalambokis, president of the Greek Exporters Association, explained to “Ta Nea“, 30 percent of Greek exports to the US are agricultural and food products, 23 percent are oil derivatives, and 41 percent – industrial goods.
The impact of the new tariffs on food exports is expected to be the strongest. Steel and aluminum products will also be affected, with the impact on steel being stronger, as was the case with the increase in tariffs during Trump's first term in office in the period 2018 - 2021.
The economic publication “Naftemboriki“ focuses on the impact of tariffs on Greek food and agricultural exports. The analysis notes that five Greek products are leading in food exports from Greece to the US. These five items alone account for 450 million euros in bilateral trade annually. According to Eurostat data, in 2024 The US accounted for 7.7 percent of Greek food exports and 7.2 percent of olive oil and olive exports.
Olives
Greek table olives have the strongest presence on the shelves of American stores, because Greece is the main country of origin of imported olives in the US. According to the Panhellenic Union of Export Table Olive Processors and Standardizers, the value of Greek exports to the US reached 214 million euros, or 39 percent more than in 2023, and the quantities increased by 8 percent to 46 thousand tons. “The US market is the largest for Greek table olives, covering over 30 percent of exports (…) “The loss“ on the American market is irreparable for the sector“, says the union's president, Costas Zoukas.
Olive oil
As for olive oil, according to the industry association, 45 thousand tons were exported to the US in 2024. A significant part of this quantity is bulk olive oil. Due to price fluctuations, the value of exports is estimated at 80-100 million euros.
Peach compote
The US is the main destination for Greek peach compote exports and, according to data from the Union of the Canning Industry of Greece, in 2023 exports were worth around 80 million euros at a customs duty of 17-18 percent, and last year the trend is believed to have been positive. The US market accounts for about 23 percent of the 244,000 tons of peach compote that Greece exports annually. The product was already hit by trade measures during Donald Trump's previous term, when tariffs jumped to 25 percent.
White cheese (feta)
In dairy products, the first place in Greek exports to the US is occupied by the white cheese “feta“. Christos Apostolopoulos, chairman of the Association of the Greek Dairy Industry, the value of Greek exports of feta to the US in 2024 amounted to 53.6 million euros, and the total quantity was 5.5 thousand tons. The US is the fifth largest market for Greek white cheese.
The actual market for feta in the US, however, is estimated at over 2 billion euros, but a large part of it falls on cheeses that “steal” the name, as the US dairy industry strongly opposes the recognition of the European protected origin and geographical indication. From this perspective, the tariffs will benefit American producers of „feta“, who will gain a competitive advantage in prices.
Wine
For Greek wine, the US is the second largest export market with sales of 19 million euros in 2024. Although exports are not large in absolute terms, some Greek wineries such as „Vivlia Chora“ have a high degree of dependence on the US market.
On the other hand, some Greek companies in the food sector are expected to be among the „profiters“ from Trump's tariffs because they have production facilities in the US. Such Greek companies are „Fage“, „Ifandis“ and „Mega Gyros“.
„Naftemboriki“ concludes that the tariffs will show how loyal American consumers are to Greek brands. The publication also quotes the optimistic assessment of the “king of sarm“ Kostas Souliotis, 30 percent of whose turnover comes from the US. He states that “any product sold for under $5 on American shelves is not a problem for consumers“. Whether this prediction will be justified remains to be seen in practice.