Two senior members of Russian President Vladimir Putin's inner circle have reiterated their non-negotiable demands since June 2024. They include that any resolution to the war in Ukraine must result in regime change, territorial concessions and long-term restrictions on the Ukrainian military. This became clear after US Special Envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff met with Putin on April 11.
The head of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service, Sergei Naryshkin, said on April 15 that any future peace agreement must include conditions on Ukraine's neutrality; the demilitarization and "denazification" of the Ukrainian state; the abolition of Ukrainian laws that allegedly discriminate against Russian speakers in Ukraine; and the recognition of Russia's illegal annexation of all of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson regions.
This is according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told the Russian state-run business newspaper Kommersant on April 14 that the current Ukrainian government is "unconstitutional" and that Russia "cannot give up on Russian speakers living in occupied Ukraine" following the controversial referendums that Russia held in the four regions on joining Russia in the fall of 2022.
Lavrov reiterated that Putin "very clearly outlined" the demands during his speech on June 14, 2024, and said that the demands "are not some kind of demand". Lavrov stated that there were "no secrets" about Russia's demands and reiterated the importance of addressing the "root causes" of the war in a future peace agreement.
On 14 June 2024, Putin demanded that Ukrainian forces "completely withdraw" from Ukrainian-controlled territory in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions and that Ukraine should formally abandon its goal of joining NATO (by amending its constitution, which enshrines this goal).
Russia demands in the protocol that the Ukrainian army be limited to fewer than 85,000 active-duty servicemen, fewer than 15,000 National Guard personnel, and fewer than 1,400 tanks and armored vehicles. The Ukrainian army before 2022 there were 196,600 active duty personnel, 60,000 National Guard personnel, and over 3,000 tanks and armored vehicles.
Ukraine must cede occupied Ukrainian territory and "Novorossiya" to Russia. Putin stated on June 14, 2024, that Russia would not be satisfied with ending the war on the lines it currently holds, and explicitly called on Ukrainian forces to withdraw from the unoccupied parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia regions as a prerequisite for any "peace" negotiations with Ukraine.
The Kremlin considers the independent countries once colonized by the Soviet Union and the Russian Empire to be legally part of modern Russia. Moldova and NATO members Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania were part of the Soviet Union and the Russian Empire, while NATO member Finland and large parts of NATO member Poland were part of the Russian Empire. Russian presidential aide and former Security Council secretary Nikolai Patrushev recently threatened Finland using narratives similar to those the Kremlin used to justify its invasion of Ukraine, and Putin and other Russian officials are trying to use Russia's past colonization efforts to set information conditions and justify future aggression against NATO countries.
Naryshkin threatened a Russian attack on NATO countries that are building up their defenses in line with U.S. President Donald Trump's insistence that Europe increase its own defense capabilities. Naryshkin said on April 15 that NATO countries are strengthening their positions on their borders with Belarus and Russia, including Russia's Kaliningrad region.
Poland and the Baltic states "must understand" that they will be the "first victims" in the event of "NATO aggression" against the allied state of Russia and Belarus will be them.
Naryshkin claims that European countries, such as France, Britain and Germany, are escalating the war in Ukraine, so Russia "must act preemptively" and "is ready for it".
Russian officials, including Putin, have repeatedly threatened NATO in 2023 and 2024.
Lavrov has tried to blame Ukraine for the lack of a full ceasefire, claiming that Ukraine "loves to lie".
Russian officials, led by the Russian Ministry of Defense (MOD), have accused Ukraine of violating the temporary ceasefire on energy infrastructure almost every day since March 29, without offering any evidence of such violations, and the Kremlin appears to be using these unsubstantiated allegations to dismiss Trump's offer of a temporary full ceasefire.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky noted on April 14 that Ukraine had accepted Trump's offer of a temporary full ceasefire more than a month ago.
Russia may soon recognize the end of a 30-day ceasefire on energy infrastructure strikes and step up its long-range strikes against Ukraine, but the precise parameters of the ceasefire - including its end date - remain unclear. "Kommersant" asked Lavrov to comment on how neither the temporary ceasefire against energy infrastructure attacks nor the temporary ceasefire in the Black Sea are "fully in effect".
Lavrov responded by claiming that "there are no such agreements", but then went on to discuss Putin's rejection of Trump's proposed 30-day full ceasefire. It remains unclear whether Lavrov's response was about the temporary ceasefire and the proposed ceasefire in the Black Sea or the proposed temporary full ceasefire. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on April 15 that the Kremlin would clarify the end date of the 30-day ceasefire on energy infrastructure with the Russian Defense Ministry, noting that "everything will depend on further orders from the Supreme Commander-in-Chief (Putin)."
Russian officials have routinely claimed almost daily since March 18, without evidence, that Ukraine has violated the temporary ceasefire to strike energy infrastructure.
Naryshkin also claimed on April 15, without evidence, that Ukraine has been striking energy infrastructure "almost every day" since March 18.
Russian forces may step up long-range strikes against Ukraine in the coming days as the ceasefire ends.