The cost of Donald Trump's strategy for Kiev and the mistake Putin will not make

The war in Ukraine, which ultimately did not end within 24 hours of Donald Trump's inauguration in the Oval Office, under the current circumstances and data, is extremely unlikely to end within the second deadline that the country's 47th president set for himself - April 30 and his 100th day in office, writes Proto Thema in an analysis of the possible ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.

Trump is adamant that he wants to end the war and that he is doing in his own way what he believes needs to be done to achieve this result. But the problem remains and indeed seems to be getting more complicated as the days, weeks and months go by. The position that Trump has chosen, leaving aside the extremely unfortunate incident with the tension in the Oval Office and Volodymyr Zelensky, gives both space and time to Russia, without imposing any different policy of pressure - even if it is symmetrical towards both parties involved.

The US president has already received quite a few "rotten apples" from the Kremlin on all his proposals, and perhaps recently information has leaked from circles close to him that he is losing his cool with his Russian counterpart, but so far there is nothing tangible from the Russian side. Trump does not hide that new sanctions are on the table that will harm Russia - they are related to the shady fleet of millions of illegal tons of crude oil, which Moscow is trying to sell even below cost in order to keep the country's economy "alive" - but until they are imposed, these are words that again give critical space for folding - reshaping and especially for the Russian attacks that sow terror and death among the Ukrainian civilian population.

On the US side, relations with Kiev remain polar. Zelensky, who after what happened in Washington has been accepting the American offer for rare earth metals for 33 days, only the day before yesterday openly invited Trump to his country and was again subjected to public humiliation, with the US president responding to the Ukrainian request to buy Patriot with “they still want missiles - let's not go to war”, it seems that from now on and at least for the next four months his only support will be Europe.

But the problem today for Ukraine is not in the next few months. The recent “thawing“ of weapons and intelligence data by Washington does not pose an immediate threat to Kiev's military reserves. What worries Zelensky is the fact that, without reason and under any circumstances, the US is insisting on a solution that it has long been "advertising" itself.

Kiev, through the diplomatic "immobility" of the US and zero pressure on Russia, is worried not by the fact that it itself is being subjected to asymmetric pressure, although it itself has not started any war, but is most worried by the fact that, through the current delay and development of events, Russia is winning more and more diplomatic cards every day, which it will not agree to under any circumstances... On open fronts, Russia may not be "galloping", but in no case are its forces retreating. At the same time, in diplomatic terms, Moscow is constantly changing its demands and narrative in order to agree to the beginning of a ceasefire. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, for example, said yesterday that Russia's main goal is “the disappearance of the Nazi regime in Kiev“... and jumps to a whole new dimension from “Ukraine will never become a member of NATO“...

Time, which for many is “money“ in the case of Ukraine, is much more valuable and, under the current circumstances, is not on its side. The truth is that much equally valuable time was lost under Biden, but today more than ever, those who have decided to side with Kiev must do so with the goal of “now“, not “later”. Washington is unlikely to change its tactics unless the Kremlin and Putin make the mistake of “misunderstand“ the White House's intentions and find themselves facing the “dark” side of the American president. Given the data and Russia's previous moves, it is unlikely that the Kremlin will attempt to "test" the limits of American tolerance.