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ISW: Putin "ready for peace on current front lines, but with ultimatums to Ukraine and US

Russia uses ceasefire offer as tactical tool while stepping up cooperation with North Korea and blaming Ukraine for lack of progress

Apr 23, 2025 08:03 144

ISW: Putin "ready for peace on current front lines, but with ultimatums to Ukraine and US  - 1

The Financial Times reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin has expressed readiness to end the war in Ukraine while preserving the current front lines. According to sources in the publication, the Kremlin has repeatedly emphasized its claims to the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions, and wider territorial ambitions are not excluded, News.bg reports.

At a meeting with US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff on April 11, Putin said that Russia could cede its claims to the Ukrainian-controlled parts of these four regions, according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). European officials warn that this is a tactical move aimed at influencing a possible Donald Trump administration in the US, by push through key Russian demands: Ukrainian neutrality, regime change, and demilitarization.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Foreign Intelligence Chief Sergei Naryshkin insist that any future agreement must include recognition of the illegal annexation of the four regions, formalized through constitutional amendments in October 2022. Russia also continues to use the term “Novorossiya“ for the occupied territories in southern Ukraine - a term Putin also used on April 21.

The Moscow Times reports that the Kremlin is trying to use economic incentives in negotiations with the United States, without any real commitment to ending the war. A source involved in Kremlin discussions said the strategy was to “milk Trump as much as possible, dangling the possibility of a truce like a carrot.”

Putin’s aide, Nikolai Patrushev, in an article in "Kommersant" on April 21, called for cooperation with the United States on Arctic issues — an initiative that contradicts the White House’s position that any cooperation must be preceded by a ceasefire.

The Kremlin continues to insist that Russia is open to negotiations, but Putin has rejected a number of proposals for a full or temporary ceasefire — including a March 18 US-Ukrainian proposal and an Easter truce backed by President Zelensky and the United States.

Putin has questioned the possibility of Ukraine continuing to receive military aid under a temporary truce, and is likely seeking conditions to limit those supplies. The Kremlin also continues to blame Ukraine for the lack of progress, although Zelensky said on April 21 that Ukraine remained ready to discuss a 30-day ceasefire, including a ban on strikes on civilian infrastructure.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Ukraine had not yet responded to Putin’s signals for discussions. According to the Moscow Times, this tactic is intended to portray Ukraine as guilty for a possible failure of the negotiations.

Zelensky stressed that a ceasefire is the first step towards lasting peace and that only after trust is established can “fundamental issues” be resolved.

Amid the war, Russia has also deepened cooperation with North Korea. According to the Russian student magazine DOXA, dozens of North Korean women work at the Wildberries warehouse in Elektrostal. According to data, over 13,000 North Koreans entered Russia in 2024, many using student visas.

The presence of North Korean workers in civilian sectors could free up Russian citizens to participate in the military industry or in combat operations in Ukraine, underscoring the long-term nature of Russia's preparations for an ongoing conflict.