The 6.2 magnitude earthquake that shook Istanbul on Wednesday has renewed interest in warnings from one of Turkey's leading experts about the potential for a more destructive seismic event in the region, writes “Türkiye Today“, BTA reported.
Prof. Dr. Naci Görüş has already warned that the Marmara Sea region could experience an earthquake between the sixth and seventh magnitude, and added that what "will follow will be even stronger“.
Görüş reiterated that the main seismic event is likely to exceed the seventh magnitude – a scenario that has long worried experts familiar with the region's seismic history.
He criticized the current approach to seismic preparedness, noting that earthquake resilience goes beyond building measures. Görüş called for coordinated action by state authorities, municipalities and citizens to properly prepare Istanbul.
After yesterday's earthquake, he said that “this is not the big earthquake we expect in the Marmara Sea. These events increase the stress built up in this fault, pushing it towards rupture“.
Among the districts of Istanbul that are particularly vulnerable due to their geological structure and urban development, he pointed out Zeytinburnu, Fatih, Bakırköy, Avcilar, Küçükçekmece, Beylikdüzü, Büyükçekmece, Kumburgaz and Silivri.
For his part, seismologist Okan Tuysüz told NTV that yesterday's earthquake had a typical sequence - a foreshock, a mainshock and smaller aftershocks. According to him, an aftershock of about magnitude five can be expected, but the probability of a much stronger earthquake is currently low, although vigilance is needed.
Prof. Dr. Hasan Sözbilir, director of the Seismic Research and Applications Center at Dokuz Eylül University, noted that the 6.2-magnitude earthquake was related to a partial rupture along the western segment of the North Anatolian Fault. Only part of the fault has become active. Its complete rupture would lead to an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.4-7.5. According to him, yesterday's tremor was positive because it could release some of the accumulated stress.
The earthquake in Istanbul on Wednesday also prompted comments from Greek seismologists. Prof. Evtimios Lekas, chairman of the Greek Earthquake Planning and Protection Organization, told Sky TV that the region is going through a period of intense seismicity and the stress cannot be relieved by an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.2. According to him, if the fault ruptures in the area, a tremor of the order of 7.6 on the Richter scale is expected.
“This is not an earthquake that will happen in the next hours, days or months. It could happen in a year or two (...) Yesterday's earthquake is more likely to accelerate it and less likely to slow it down”, said Lekas.