Sociologist Kolyo Kolev before FACTS: The chances of a cabinet are not great, 50 to 50 with many compromises

GERB-SDS leads with a 14% lead over the second "Vazrazhdane". This is according to a representative survey by the Mediana polling agency. The current picture shows that nearly 29% of Bulgarians would vote for GERB-SDS, for "Vazrazhdane" – nearly 15%, and in the battle for the second place are DPS - with 13.5%, and PP-DB – by nearly 13%. The other sure participants in the 50th National Assembly are BSP – with nearly 9%, and "There is such a people" - by over 6%. With chances to overcome the 4 percent barrier are also "Blue Bulgaria", "Levitsa" and "Solidarity Bulgaria". Will we have a regular cabinet… Sociologist Kolyo Kolev spoke to FACTS.

- Mr. Kolev, your latest research gives the first over the second - we are talking about GERD-SDS and “Revival”, of 14%. In this sense, is there a dilemma for the first place?
- I can never say something so definitive, because we have examples of how things turn around at the last moment. If you remember, when the subway exploded in Madrid, Jose Zapatero was the last, and the next moment he was the first. Let's also remember the famous “portions“ of Ahmed Dogan, who brought 600 thousand people, traditionally non-voters, to the polls and how they gave the victory to Borisov. So there's nothing definitive here, but right now, what our research shows is that GERD is in first place, second is “Revival“ - with a difference of about 14%. Third are DPS, fourth PP-DB. So the big battle shaping up right now will be for second place. Both DPS and “Revival“ they have many hidden trumps. I am talking about the following - sociological studies do not capture the very strong hidden vote, which is not caught during the exit polls on election day either. In the case of DPS, these are the Bulgarian emigrants in Turkey, and this party has a machine for mobilizing and activating the vote. At “Revival“ the protest vote can play a role. At the moment – there is less than a week until the election, anything can happen. And something else. There is a mass of 400,000 people who are looking for their alternative, but cannot find it among the political players.

- At the moment, if we look at the main political forces, PP-DB and DPS are very close – 13% to 13.5%. Can there be a turnaround…
- Maybe, but the problem is - if one follows the trends, that PP-DB continues to erode. Research on them does not show an increase, while on DPS it is the opposite - we observe an activation. Otherwise, yes, of course it is possible for PP-DB to improve. If all these 400,000 wavering voters rush to PP-DB – they may even become the first political force. But in this case I don't see how it will happen. The other parties that will shape the political configuration after the elections are BSP and ITN. In my opinion, the two parties are definitely above the 4 percent barrier, and Slavi Trifonov's party will be able to field an MEP as well. There are also three smaller formations that have a smaller percentage, but are close to the 4 percent barrier.

- You are talking about “Blue Bulgaria, “The Left” and “Solidary Bulgaria“…
- Exactly. And against the background of these 400,000 wavering and looking for an alternative, their chances are not at all to be underestimated. Of course, they may not cross the 4% barrier, and then we will have a completely different configuration. If they do not pass, their votes will be redistributed to the stronger – and at the moment these are GERB-SDS, DPS and "Vazrazhdane". Then it is quite possible that GERB-SDS and DPS will form a parliamentary majority.

- To bring you back to this hypothesis where “Revival“ are second. Then how will you talk about a cabinet. The first mandate is clear – at GERB-SDS. Let's assume there is no cabinet. The second term goes to "Revival", and they have always said that they are ready with their own cabinet. But who will support them? If the first two terms do not happen…
- If “Revival“ make a good result and come second, they will be faced with the following dilemma - either play politics, in the sense of trying to form a cabinet, or go and make the fatal mistake that ITN made when they won the elections – to show party arrogance, let's put it that way, but in reality to refuse to do management, placing themselves, almost, in some isolation. This road leads nowhere. So “Revival“ have to choose – or to behave this time not as a bright opposition, but to play for control, or to begin to sink slowly if they are arrogant.

- We have heard from “Revival“ to say that they will not govern with GERB, but want to fulfill their promises themselves…
- This is a road to nowhere. “Revival“ they have to take 45% of the election results, and at the moment I don't see how that will happen in order to rule on their own. What they say is one thing, and what they will do is quite another. Politics is not an art of desire, but an art of the possible.

- In this line of thought, do you think we will have a cabinet after these elections…
- If we listen to the oaths at the moment – “never us with them, “never us with them”, the chances are not very high. But let's say that the chances are 50 to 50. The oaths before the elections are one thing, the realities after the vote are quite another. And we see the curious loopholes played by the PP-DB, which largely affect their political presence. So now the chances of a cabinet are not very high, but let's call them 50 to 50 and with many mutual compromises.